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Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   103-15 (+09)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   102-07.5 (+0.5)  
 
  Support   3.237%  
 
  Resistance   1.975%  
 
 
 
 
Tuesday, June 25, 2019
 
 
Treasury Yields Fall on Mounting Geopolitical Tensions
 
 
Market opened today’s session with treasuries advancing across all maturities. 10-Year Treasury yield is at 1.9867, 2.76 bps decreased from prior closing of 2.0143.

US equity futures slipped and Treasuries edged higher this morning as investors awaited commentary from the Fed Chair Powell on the economy and monetary policy. Also, mounting geopolitical tensions added to the risk-off mood. As a retaliation of shooting down a US Navy drone last week, President Trump imposed sanctions on Iran’s Supreme leader and eight senior military commanders where they would be denied access to financial resources. WTI crude ended its three-day rally as investors weighed the news against the potential production cut extensions by OPEC and its allies. On the trade front, US officials downplayed the prospect of a breakthrough days ahead of highly-anticipated meeting between President Trump and China’s Xi at the G-20 meeting in Japan this week.

FHFA House Price Index in April slightly edged higher to 0.40% from 0.10% prior while consensus called for a 0.20% increase. S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City Home Composite Price Index remained unchanged MoM, and increased 2.54% YoY, following a downwardly revised prior of 2.61%. Today’s YoY data marked the slowest pace of price gains since August 2012 and 13th straight month of price deceleration. New Home Sales in May also dropped to 626k, following an upwardly revised prior of 679k. Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index in June came in above consensus of 2.00 at 3.00. Lastly, Conference Board Consumer Confidence in June slipped to 121.50 from a downwardly revised prior of 131.30 while consensus called for 131.00. Later today, the US Treasury is scheduled to auction off $40 billion of 2-year notes at 10 AM (PT).

The curve has bull-flattened with UST 10-Year yield down 2.76 bps.
 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  06/24 Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index 05:30 May -0.20 -0.05 -0.45 -0.48  
                   
  06/24 Dallas Fed Manf. Activity 07:30 Jun -2.00 -12.10 -5.30 -  
                   
  06/25 FHFA House Price Index MoM 06:00 Apr 0.20% 0.40% 0.10% -  
                   
  06/25 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA 06:00 Apr 0.10% 0.00% 0.09% 0.32%  
                   
  06/25 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA 06:00 Apr 2.50% 2.54% 2.68% 2.61%  
                   
  06/25 Richmond Fed Manufact. Index 07:00 Jun 2.00 3.00 5.00 -  
                   
  06/26 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 21 Jun - - -3.40% -  
                   
  06/26 Wholesale Inventories MoM 05:30 May P 0.50% - 0.80% -  
                   
  06/26 Durable Goods Orders 05:30 May P -0.30% - -2.10% -  
                   
  06/26 Durables Ex Transportation 05:30 May P 0.10% - 0.00% -  
                   
  06/27 GDP Annualized QoQ 05:30 1Q T 3.20% - 3.10% -  
                   
  06/27 Personal Consumption 05:30 1Q T 1.30% - 1.30% -  
                   
  06/27 GDP Price Index 05:30 1Q T 0.80% - 0.80% -  
                   
  06/27 Core PCE QoQ 05:30 1Q T 1.00% - 1.00% -  
                   
  06/27 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 22 Jun 218k - 216k -  
                   
  06/27 Continuing Claims 05:30 15 Jun 1668k - 1662k -  
                   
  06/27 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 23 Jun - - 61.80 -  
                   
  06/27 Pending Home Sales MoM 07:00 May 0.90% - -1.50% -  
                   
  06/27 Pending Home Sales NSA YoY 07:00 May 0.40% - 0.40% -  
                   
  06/28 Personal Income 05:30 May 0.30% - 0.50% -  
                   
  06/28 Personal Spending 05:30 May 0.50% - 0.30% -  
                   
  06/28 PCE Deflator MoM 05:30 May 0.20% - 0.30% -  
                   
  06/28 PCE Deflator YoY 05:30 May 1.50% - 1.60% -  
                   
  06/28 U. of Mich. Sentiment 07:00 Jun F 98.00 - 97.90 -
                   
 
 
 
 
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