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Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   99-30.5 (+0.5)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   99-08.5 (+01)  
 
  Support   3.111%  
 
  Resistance   2.759%  
 
 
 
 
Tuesday, June 26, 2018
 
 
Treasuries are slightly lower across the curve this morning from yesterday’s close. The UST 10-Year yield is currently at 2.887% after closing at 2.881% prior.

Yesterday Treasuries rallied as trade war fears continued to loom while investors digested the outlook for trade and its implications on global growth. U.S. Stocks fluctuated at open this morning after selling off throughout most of yesterday’s session. On the economic calendar, we received the Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index for the month of April which rose 0.20% month-over-month following a downwardly revised increase of 0.40% in March. The Case-Shiller Price Index rose below expectations at 6.56% year-over-year in April versus a 6.80% increase per consensus.

The June Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index came in above expectations at 20.00 versus 15.00 per consensus, which rose from its previous level of 16.00 prior. We also received the June Conference Board Consumer Confidence which fell to 126.40 from an upwardly revised 128.80 reading level prior. Later today at 10:00 AM (PT), Treasury will auction $34 Billion 2-Year Notes in the first of three bond auctions scheduled this week. In Fed Speak, Atlanta Fed President Bostic is scheduled to hold Q&A session in Birmingham, Alabama at 10:15 AM (PT), and Dallas Fed President Kaplan is scheduled to speak to the Greater Houston Partnership State of Talent in Houston, Texas at 10:45 AM (PT).

The curve has bear-steepened with the UST 10-Year yield up 0.6 bp from prior closing.
 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  06/25 Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index 05:30 May 0.30 -0.15 0.34 0.42  
                   
  06/25 New Home Sales 07:00 May 667k 689k 662k 646k  
                   
  06/25 New Home Sales MoM 07:00 May 0.70% 6.70% -1.50% -3.70%  
                   
  06/25 Dallas Fed Manf. Activity 07:30 Jun 24.90 36.50 26.80 -  
                   
  06/26 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA 06:00 Apr 0.40% 0.20% 0.53% 0.40%  
                   
  06/26 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA 06:00 Apr 6.80% 6.56% 6.79% 6.73%  
                   
  06/26 Richmond Fed Manufact. Index 07:00 Jun 15.00 20.00 16.00 -  
                   
  06/27 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 22 Jun - - 5.10% -  
                   
  06/27 Wholesale Inventories MoM 05:30 May P 0.20% - 0.10% -  
                   
  06/27 Durable Goods Orders 05:30 May P -1.00% - -1.60% -  
                   
  06/27 Durables Ex Transportation 05:30 May P 0.50% - 0.90% -  
                   
  06/27 Pending Home Sales MoM 07:00 May 0.50% - -1.30% -  
                   
  06/27 Pending Home Sales NSA YoY 07:00 May - - 0.40% -  
                   
  06/28 GDP Annualized QoQ 05:30 1Q T 2.20% - 2.20% -  
                   
  06/28 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 23 Jun 220k - 218k -  
                   
  06/28 Continuing Claims 05:30 16 Jun 1718k - 1723k -  
                   
  06/28 Personal Consumption 05:30 1Q T 1.00% - 1.00% -  
                   
  06/28 GDP Price Index 05:30 1Q T 1.90% - 1.90% -  
                   
  06/28 Core PCE QoQ 05:30 1Q T - - 2.30% -  
                   
  06/28 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 24 Jun - - 56.50 -  
                   
  06/28 Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity 08:00 Jun 26.00 - 29.00 -  
                   
  06/29 Personal Income 05:30 May 0.40% - 0.30% -  
                   
  06/29 Personal Spending 05:30 May 0.40% - 0.60% -  
                   
  06/29 PCE Deflator MoM 05:30 May 0.20% - 0.20% -  
                   
  06/29 PCE Deflator YoY 05:30 May 2.20% - 2.00% -  
                   
  06/29 PCE Core MoM 05:30 May 0.20% - 0.20% -  
                   
  06/29 PCE Core YoY 05:30 May 1.90% - 1.80% -  
                   
  06/29 U. of Mich. Sentiment 06:45 Jun F 99.10 - 99.30 -  
                   
 
 
 
 
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