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Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   103-05 (-09.5)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   102-03.5 (-3.5)  
 
  Support   3.237%  
 
  Resistance   1.975%  
 
 
 
 
Wednesday, June 26, 2019
 
 
Treasury Yields Rose on Trade Optimism
 
 
Market opened today’s session with treasuries inching lower across all maturities. 10-Year Treasury yield is at 2.0175, 3.25 bps increased from prior closing of 1.9850.

Stocks rose in the earlier part of the session after Treasury Secretary Mnuchin reiterated his optimism toward an eventual trade deal with China but pared some of the gains as President Trump said his administration should be suing Google and Facebook. He also once again threatened substantial additional tariffs if a deal cannot be reached with China. Though overshadowed by President Trump’s remarks this morning, Treasury Secretary Mnuchin’s upbeat comments on an agreement already being 90.00% in place did revive risk appetite among investors on some level. Meanwhile, Fed Chair Powell said yesterday that the Fed is assessing whether a rate cut is necessary but also mentioned that the central bank will take a wait-and-see approach due to recent rapid economic changes. St. Louis Fed President Bullard also downplayed prospect of a rate cut against market expectation of a rate cut in July. Elsewhere, WTI crude surged above $59 a barrel this morning.

MBA Mortgage Applications index rose 1.30% after falling 3.40% in prior week. Purchases declined 0.90% and refinances increased 3.20% after both falling 3.50% in prior week. Durable Goods Orders printed -1.30% below consensus of -0.30%, following a downwardly revised prior of -2.80%. The core, however, slightly edged higher to 0.30% from a downwardly revised prior of -0.10% vs. 0.10% consensus. Lastly, Wholesales Inventories came in at 0.40%, following an upwardly revised prior of 0.90% while consensus called for a 0.50% increase. Later today, the US Treasury is scheduled to auction off $41 billion of 5-year notes at 10:00 AM (PT).

The curve has bear-steepened with UST 10-Year yield up 3.25 bps.
 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  06/24 Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index 05:30 May -0.20 -0.05 -0.45 -0.48  
                   
  06/24 Dallas Fed Manf. Activity 07:30 Jun -2.00 -12.10 -5.30 -  
                   
  06/25 FHFA House Price Index MoM 06:00 Apr 0.20% 0.40% 0.10% -  
                   
  06/25 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA 06:00 Apr 0.10% 0.00% 0.09% 0.32%  
                   
  06/25 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA 06:00 Apr 2.50% 2.54% 2.68% 2.61%  
                   
  06/25 Richmond Fed Manufact. Index 07:00 Jun 2.00 3.00 5.00 -  
                   
  06/26 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 21 Jun - 1.30% -3.40% -  
                   
  06/26 Wholesale Inventories MoM 05:30 May P 0.50% 0.40% 0.80% 0.90%  
                   
  06/26 Durable Goods Orders 05:30 May P -0.30% -1.30% -2.10% -2.80%  
                   
  06/26 Durables Ex Transportation 05:30 May P 0.10% 0.30% 0.00% -0.10%  
                   
  06/27 GDP Annualized QoQ 05:30 1Q T 3.20% - 3.10% -  
                   
  06/27 Personal Consumption 05:30 1Q T 1.30% - 1.30% -  
                   
  06/27 GDP Price Index 05:30 1Q T 0.80% - 0.80% -  
                   
  06/27 Core PCE QoQ 05:30 1Q T 1.00% - 1.00% -  
                   
  06/27 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 22 Jun 220k - 216k -  
                   
  06/27 Continuing Claims 05:30 15 Jun 1665k - 1662k -  
                   
  06/27 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 23 Jun - - 61.80 -  
                   
  06/27 Pending Home Sales MoM 07:00 May 1.00% - -1.50% -  
                   
  06/27 Pending Home Sales NSA YoY 07:00 May 0.40% - 0.40% -  
                   
  06/28 Personal Income 05:30 May 0.30% - 0.50% -  
                   
  06/28 Personal Spending 05:30 May 0.50% - 0.30% -  
                   
  06/28 PCE Deflator MoM 05:30 May 0.20% - 0.30% -  
                   
  06/28 PCE Deflator YoY 05:30 May 1.50% - 1.60% -  
                   
  06/28 U. of Mich. Sentiment 07:00 Jun F 98.00 - 97.90 -
                   
 
 
 
 
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  This information is provided solely for informational use and is not intended as an advice for trading or investment purposes in any manner whatsoever. Sun West Mortgage Company, Inc. is not a licensed or registered broker or dealer and cannot provide investment strategies or recommendations. This information is provided to licensed brokers/lenders only and may not be copied or distributed to customers or potential customers. All loans are subject to approval. Certain restrictions may apply. Listed pricing is a morning indication only. Program rates, prices, guidelines, fees, costs, terms and conditions are subject to change without notice.  
 
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