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Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   100-05 (+05.5)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   99-14 (+03.5)  
 
  Support   3.111%  
 
  Resistance   2.759%  
 
 
 
 
Wednesday, June 27, 2018
 
 
Treasuries are higher across the curve this morning from yesterday’s close. The UST 10-Year yield is currently at 2.854% after closing at 2.878% prior.

Treasuries rallied overnight as investors struggled to dissect the decision of the Trump administration to take a less confrontational approach toward Chinese investments in the U.S. Mixed signals from the administration also pushed U.S. Stocks higher and supported the dollar’s gains. On the economic calendar, we received the May Wholesale Inventories which rose above expectations at 0.50% versus a 0.20% gain per consensus. May Durable Goods Orders dropped 0.60% following a revised drop of 1.00% prior, and Durables Excluding Transportation fell 0.30% after an upwardly revised increase of 1.90% prior. Capital Goods Orders Nondefense declined 0.20% in May after gaining 2.30% revised prior, and Capital Goods Shipments Nondefense fell 0.10% following a revised 1.00% increase prior.

We also received the May Pending Home Sales which fell 0.50% month-over-month following a drop of 1.30% in April; Pending Home Sales fell 2.80% year-over-year following a gain of 0.30% revised prior. MBA Mortgage Applications for the week ended June 22 dropped 4.90% after increasing by 5.10% in activities the week prior. Purchase applications fell 5.90% after rising 4.30% the week prior, and refinancing activities dropped 3.50% after rising 6.10% the week prior. Boston Fed President Rosengren is scheduled to speak on Ethics and Economics at 9:15 AM (PT) in Washington. Then later today at 10:00 AM (PT), Treasury will auction $36 Billion 5-Year Notes in the second of three bond auctions scheduled for the week.

The curve has bull-flattened with the UST 10-Year yield down 2.4 bps from prior closing.
 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  06/25 Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index 05:30 May 0.30 -0.15 0.34 0.42  
                   
  06/25 New Home Sales 07:00 May 667k 689k 662k 646k  
                   
  06/25 New Home Sales MoM 07:00 May 0.70% 6.70% -1.50% -3.70%  
                   
  06/25 Dallas Fed Manf. Activity 07:30 Jun 24.90 36.50 26.80 -  
                   
  06/26 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA 06:00 Apr 0.40% 0.20% 0.53% 0.40%  
                   
  06/26 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA 06:00 Apr 6.80% 6.56% 6.79% 6.73%  
                   
  06/26 Richmond Fed Manufact. Index 07:00 Jun 15.00 20.00 16.00 -  
                   
  06/27 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 22 Jun - -4.90% 5.10% -  
                   
  06/27 Wholesale Inventories MoM 05:30 May P 0.20% 0.50% 0.10% -  
                   
  06/27 Durable Goods Orders 05:30 May P -1.00% -0.60% -1.60% -1.00%  
                   
  06/27 Durables Ex Transportation 05:30 May P 0.50% -0.30% 0.90% 1.90%  
                   
  06/27 Pending Home Sales MoM 07:00 May 0.50% -0.50% -1.30% -  
                   
  06/27 Pending Home Sales NSA YoY 07:00 May - -2.80% 0.40% 0.30%  
                   
  06/28 GDP Annualized QoQ 05:30 1Q T 2.20% - 2.20% -  
                   
  06/28 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 23 Jun 220k - 218k -  
                   
  06/28 Continuing Claims 05:30 16 Jun 1718k - 1723k -  
                   
  06/28 Personal Consumption 05:30 1Q T 1.00% - 1.00% -  
                   
  06/28 GDP Price Index 05:30 1Q T 1.90% - 1.90% -  
                   
  06/28 Core PCE QoQ 05:30 1Q T - - 2.30% -  
                   
  06/28 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 24 Jun - - 56.50 -  
                   
  06/28 Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity 08:00 Jun 26.00 - 29.00 -  
                   
  06/29 Personal Income 05:30 May 0.40% - 0.30% -  
                   
  06/29 Personal Spending 05:30 May 0.40% - 0.60% -  
                   
  06/29 PCE Deflator MoM 05:30 May 0.20% - 0.20% -  
                   
  06/29 PCE Deflator YoY 05:30 May 2.20% - 2.00% -  
                   
  06/29 PCE Core MoM 05:30 May 0.20% - 0.20% -  
                   
  06/29 PCE Core YoY 05:30 May 1.90% - 1.80% -  
                   
  06/29 U. of Mich. Sentiment 06:45 Jun F 99.10 - 99.30 -  
                   
 
 
 
 
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