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Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   100-12 (-01)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   99-17 (00)  
 
  Support   3.111%  
 
  Resistance   2.759%  
 
 
 
 
Thursday, June 28, 2018
 
 
Treasuries are slightly lower across the curve this morning from yesterday’s close. The UST 10-Year yield is currently at 2.830% after closing at 2.826% prior.

Treasuries held steady at open while investors continued to struggle digesting the Trump administration’s strategy on Chinese trade and investment. Yesterday’s notion that the U.S. softened its stance on China was reversed after a statement from adviser Larry Kudlow suggested otherwise, sending more mixed signals on global trade from the administration. This morning we received the third estimate of the 1Q GDP report which was revised down to 2.00% QoQ from 2.20% prior. Personal Consumption was also revised lower to 0.90% as consensus expected no changes from its previous estimate of 1.00%. The GDP Price Index was revised higher from its previous estimate of 1.90% to 2.20%, while the Core PCE remained unchanged from prior at 2.30%.

Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended June 23 rose 9k to 227k from an unrevised 218k the week prior. Continuing Claims for the week ended June 16 fell 21k to 1705k from an upwardly revised 1726k the week prior. There are a couple of Fed speeches scheduled this morning including St. Louis Fed President Bullard who will speak on the U.S. economy and monetary policy at 7:45 AM (PT), and Atlanta Fed President Bostic who will meet with the Fed Up Coalition in Atlanta at 9:00 AM (PT). Later today at 10:00 AM (PT), Treasury will auction $30 Billion 7-Year Notes in the last sale of this week’s bond auctions.

The curve has bear-steepened with the UST 10-Year yield up 0.4 bp from prior closing.
 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  06/25 Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index 05:30 May 0.30 -0.15 0.34 0.42  
                   
  06/25 New Home Sales 07:00 May 667k 689k 662k 646k  
                   
  06/25 New Home Sales MoM 07:00 May 0.70% 6.70% -1.50% -3.70%  
                   
  06/25 Dallas Fed Manf. Activity 07:30 Jun 24.90 36.50 26.80 -  
                   
  06/26 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA 06:00 Apr 0.40% 0.20% 0.53% 0.40%  
                   
  06/26 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA 06:00 Apr 6.80% 6.56% 6.79% 6.73%  
                   
  06/26 Richmond Fed Manufact. Index 07:00 Jun 15.00 20.00 16.00 -  
                   
  06/27 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 22 Jun - -4.90% 5.10% -  
                   
  06/27 Wholesale Inventories MoM 05:30 May P 0.20% 0.50% 0.10% -  
                   
  06/27 Durable Goods Orders 05:30 May P -1.00% -0.60% -1.60% -1.00%  
                   
  06/27 Durables Ex Transportation 05:30 May P 0.50% -0.30% 0.90% 1.90%  
                   
  06/27 Pending Home Sales MoM 07:00 May 0.50% -0.50% -1.30% -  
                   
  06/27 Pending Home Sales NSA YoY 07:00 May - -2.80% 0.40% 0.30%  
                   
  06/28 GDP Annualized QoQ 05:30 1Q T 2.20% 2.00% 2.20% -  
                   
  06/28 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 23 Jun 220k 227k 218k -  
                   
  06/28 Continuing Claims 05:30 16 Jun 1717k 1705k 1723k 1726k  
                   
  06/28 Personal Consumption 05:30 1Q T 1.00% 0.90% 1.00% -  
                   
  06/28 GDP Price Index 05:30 1Q T 1.90% 2.20% 1.90% -  
                   
  06/28 Core PCE QoQ 05:30 1Q T - 2.30% 2.30% -  
                   
  06/28 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 24 Jun - 57.30 56.50 -  
                   
  06/28 Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity 08:00 Jun 26.00 28.00 29.00 -  
                   
  06/29 Personal Income 05:30 May 0.40% - 0.30% -  
                   
  06/29 Personal Spending 05:30 May 0.40% - 0.60% -  
                   
  06/29 PCE Deflator MoM 05:30 May 0.20% - 0.20% -  
                   
  06/29 PCE Deflator YoY 05:30 May 2.20% - 2.00% -  
                   
  06/29 PCE Core MoM 05:30 May 0.20% - 0.20% -  
                   
  06/29 PCE Core YoY 05:30 May 1.90% - 1.80% -  
                   
  06/29 U. of Mich. Sentiment 06:45 Jun F 99.00 - 99.30 -  
                   
 
 
 
 
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