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Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   103-09 (-0.5)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   102-07 (-01.5)  
 
  Support   3.237%  
 
  Resistance   1.975%  
 
 
 
 
Friday, June 28, 2019
 
 
Treasury Yields Slightly Rise ahead of US-China Meeting
 
 
Market opened today’s session with treasuries inching lower across all maturities. 10-Year Treasury yield is at 2.0154, 0.14 bp increased from prior closing of 2.0140.

US equity futures rose this morning, led by banks including JP Morgan Chase, Morgan Stanley, Citigroup, Wells Faro, Goldman Sachs, and Bank of America who all passed the Fed’s annual stress test and got approval to boost dividends and share repurchase programs. All eyes now turn to the G-20 summit in Japan where President Trump and China’s Xi are set to meet tomorrow. While President Trump didn’t promise not to impose additional tariffs on China, he predicted that the meeting would be productive “at a minimum”. On the other hand, Xi warned that “bullying practices” won’t work. President Trump already met several leaders at the summit including Russia’s Putin whom he jokingly warned not to meddle in the upcoming US election. Elsewhere, WTI crude slightly edged higher this morning, on track for its best month since January.

Personal Income in May came in unchanged from prior reading of 0.50% vs. 0.30% consensus, and Personal Spending declined to 0.40% from an upwardly revised prior of 0.60% while consensus called for 0.50%. MNI Chicago PMI in June declined to 49.70 vs. 53.50 estimate, following 54.20 in prior month. Lastly, University of Michigan Sentiment inched higher to 98.20 from a prior reading of 97.90 while consensus called for 97.90 as well.

The curve has bear-steepened with UST 10-Year yield up 0.14 bp.
 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  06/24 Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index 05:30 May -0.20 -0.05 -0.45 -0.48  
                   
  06/24 Dallas Fed Manf. Activity 07:30 Jun -2.00 -12.10 -5.30 -  
                   
  06/25 FHFA House Price Index MoM 06:00 Apr 0.20% 0.40% 0.10% -  
                   
  06/25 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA 06:00 Apr 0.10% 0.00% 0.09% 0.32%  
                   
  06/25 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA 06:00 Apr 2.50% 2.54% 2.68% 2.61%  
                   
  06/25 Richmond Fed Manufact. Index 07:00 Jun 2.00 3.00 5.00 -  
                   
  06/26 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 21 Jun - 1.30% -3.40% -  
                   
  06/26 Wholesale Inventories MoM 05:30 May P 0.50% 0.40% 0.80% 0.90%  
                   
  06/26 Durable Goods Orders 05:30 May P -0.30% -1.30% -2.10% -2.80%  
                   
  06/26 Durables Ex Transportation 05:30 May P 0.10% 0.30% 0.00% -0.10%  
                   
  06/27 GDP Annualized QoQ 05:30 1Q T 3.20% 3.10% 3.10% -  
                   
  06/27 Personal Consumption 05:30 1Q T 1.30% 0.90% 1.30% -  
                   
  06/27 GDP Price Index 05:30 1Q T 0.80% 0.90% 0.80% -  
                   
  06/27 Core PCE QoQ 05:30 1Q T 1.00% 1.20% 1.00% -  
                   
  06/27 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 22 Jun 220k 227k 216k 217k  
                   
  06/27 Continuing Claims 05:30 15 Jun 1665k 1688k 1662k 1666k  
                   
  06/27 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 23 Jun - 63.6 61.80 -  
                   
  06/27 Pending Home Sales MoM 07:00 May 1.00% 1.10% -1.50% -  
                   
  06/27 Pending Home Sales NSA YoY 07:00 May 0.40% -0.80% 0.40% -  
                   
  06/28 Personal Income 05:30 May 0.30% 0.50% 0.50% -  
                   
  06/28 Personal Spending 05:30 May 0.50% 0.40% 0.30% 0.60%  
                   
  06/28 PCE Deflator MoM 05:30 May 0.20% 0.20% 0.30% -  
                   
  06/28 PCE Deflator YoY 05:30 May 1.50% 1.50% 1.50% 1.60%  
                   
  06/28 U. of Mich. Sentiment 07:00 Jun F 97.90 98.20 97.90 -
                   
 
 
 
 
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