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Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   103-08.5 (-0.5)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   102-07.5 (+01)  
 
  Support   3.237%  
 
  Resistance   1.975%  
 
 
 
 
Monday, July 01, 2019
 
 
Treasury Yields Slightly Rise on US-China Trade Truce
 
 
Market opened today’s session with treasuries inching lower across all maturities. 10-Year Treasury yield is at 2.0119, 0.68 bp increased from prior closing of 2.0051.

US stocks surged with the S&P 500 reaching an all-time high as investors welcomed a temporary truce between the US and China. President Trump agreed to hold off imposing additional tariffs on $300 billion of Chinese goods and announced that he would ease a ban on Huawei, allowing American companies supplying to China’s largest tech company. Semiconductor shares including Skyworks Solutions, Micron Technology, and Qualcomm rose broadly on the news. While attending the final day of the G-20 summit in Japan, President Trump tweeted an invitation for North Korea’s Kim to meet for a handshake and eventually made himself the first sitting US President to enter the hermit nation. Elsewhere, WTI crude rallied toward $60 a barrel this morning after OPEC and its allies agreed to extend output cuts by nine months.

Markit US Manufacturing PMI in June slightly rose to 50.60 from 50.10 prior vs. 50.10 consensus. ISM Manufacturing printed 51.70 above consensus of 51.00, following a prior of 52.10, and ISM Prices Paid dropped to 47.90 from 53.20 in prior month while consensus called for 53.00. Lastly, Construction Spending in May declined to -0.80% from an upwardly revised prior of 0.40%. Later today, the US Treasury is scheduled to auction off $36 billion of 3-month bills and $36 billion of 6-month bills at 8:30 AM (PT).

The curve has bear-flattened with UST 10-Year yield up 0.68 bp.
 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  07/01 Markit US Manufacturing PMI 06:45 Jun F 50.10 50.60 50.10 -  
                   
  07/01 ISM Manufacturing 07:00 Jun 51.00 51.70 52.10 -  
                   
  07/01 ISM Prices Paid 07:00 Jun 53.00 47.90 53.20 -  
                   
  07/01 Construction Spending MoM 07:00 May 0.00% -0.80% 0.00% 0.40%  
                   
  07/02 No Data - - - - - -  
                   
  07/03 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 28 Jun - - 1.30% -  
                   
  07/03 Challenger Job Cuts YoY 04:30 Jun - - 85.90% -  
                   
  07/03 ADP Employment Change 05:15 Jun 140k - 27k -  
                   
  07/03 Trade Balance 05:30 May -$54.00b - -$50.80b -  
                   
  07/03 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 29 Jun 223k - 227k -  
                   
  07/03 Continuing Claims 05:30 22 Jun 1675k - 1688k -  
                   
  07/03 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 30 Jun - - 63.60 -  
                   
  07/03 Markit US Services PMI 06:45 Jun F 50.70 - 50.70 -  
                   
  07/03 Markit US Composite PMI 06:45 Jun F - - 50.60 -  
                   
  07/03 Durable Goods Orders 07:00 May F -1.30% - -1.30% -  
                   
  07/03 Factory Orders 07:00 May -0.60% - -0.80% -  
                   
  07/03 Durables Ex Transportation 07:00 May F - - 0.30% -  
                   
  07/04 No Data - - - - - -  
                   
  07/05 Unemployment Rate 05:30 Jun 3.60% - 3.60% -  
                   
  07/05 Average Hourly Earnings MoM 05:30 Jun 0.30% - 0.20% -  
                   
  07/05 Average Hourly Earnings YoY 05:30 Jun 3.20% - 3.10% -  
                   
  07/05 Labor Force Participation Rate 05:30 Jun 62.80% - 62.80% -
                   
 
 
 
 
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  This information is provided solely for informational use and is not intended as an advice for trading or investment purposes in any manner whatsoever. Sun West Mortgage Company, Inc. is not a licensed or registered broker or dealer and cannot provide investment strategies or recommendations. This information is provided to licensed brokers/lenders only and may not be copied or distributed to customers or potential customers. All loans are subject to approval. Certain restrictions may apply. Listed pricing is a morning indication only. Program rates, prices, guidelines, fees, costs, terms and conditions are subject to change without notice.  
 
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