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Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   100-05 (+01)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   99-15 (00)  
 
  Support   3.111%  
 
  Resistance   2.759%  
 
 
 
 
Monday, July 02, 2018
 
 
Treasuries are higher across the curve this morning from Friday’s close. The UST 10-Year yield is currently at 2.850% after closing at 2.861% prior.

Treasuries rallied overnight and into the open following a selloff in Asia as trade war jitters resumed with the U.S. set to impose tariffs on Chinese imports on July 6. U.S. Stocks lowered and emerging markets slid, while the dollar strengthened with the rally in Treasuries. This week’s economic calendar kicked off with the June Markit US Manufacturing PMI which came in better than expected at 55.40 versus a reading level of 54.60 per consensus. We also received the Construction Spending for May which rose 0.40% month-over-month following a downwardly revised increase of 0.90% in April. Lastly, the June ISM Manufacturing came in at 60.20 versus an expected 58.50 per consensus, and the ISM Prices Paid came in at 76.80 versus an expected 75.00 per consensus.

The remainder of this week’s shortened calendar features the May Factory Orders and Durable Goods Orders as well as the May Capital Goods Orders and Shipments on Tuesday. On Thursday, the June Markit US Services PMI and Composite PMI will be available, along with the FOMC Minutes from the Fed’s latest meeting. Then on Friday we will receive the employment reports for the month of June together with the May Trade Balance.

The curve has bull-flattened with the UST 10-Year yield down 1.1 bps from prior closing.
 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  07/02 Markit US Manufacturing PMI 06:45 Jun F 54.60 55.40 54.60 -  
                   
  07/02 Construction Spending MoM 07:00 May 0.50% 0.40% 1.80% 0.90%  
                   
  07/02 ISM Manufacturing 07:00 Jun 58.50 60.20 58.70 -  
                   
  07/02 ISM Prices Paid 07:00 Jun 75.00 76.80 79.50 -  
                   
  07/03 Factory Orders 07:00 May 0.00% - -0.80% -  
                   
  07/03 Durable Goods Orders 07:00 May F -0.50% - -0.60% -  
                   
  07/03 Durables Ex Transportation 07:00 May F - - -0.30% -  
                   
  07/04 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 29 Jun - - -4.90% -  
                   
  07/05 Challenger Job Cuts YoY 04:30 Jun - - -4.80% -  
                   
  07/05 ADP Employment Change 05:15 Jun 190k - 178k -  
                   
  07/05 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 30 Jun 225k - 227k -  
                   
  07/05 Continuing Claims 05:30 23 Jun 1718k - 1705k -  
                   
  07/05 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 1 Jul - - 57.30 -  
                   
  07/05 Markit US Services PMI 06:45 Jun F 56.50 - 56.50 -  
                   
  07/05 Markit US Composite PMI 06:45 Jun F - - 56.00 -  
                   
  07/05 FOMC Meeting Minutes 11:00 13 Jun - - - -  
                   
  07/06 Trade Balance 05:30 May -$43.60b - -$46.20b -  
                   
  07/06 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls 05:30 Jun 195k - 223k -  
                   
  07/06 Unemployment Rate 05:30 Jun 3.80% - 3.80% -  
                   
  07/06 Average Hourly Earnings MoM 05:30 Jun 0.30% - 0.30% -  
                   
  07/06 Average Hourly Earnings YoY 05:30 Jun 2.80% - 2.70% -  
                   
  07/06 Labor Force Participation Rate 05:30 Jun 62.70% - 62.70% -  
                   
 
 
 
 
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