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Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   100-06.5 (-13.5)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   102-14 (-07.5)  
 
  Support   2.327%  
 
  Resistance   2.120%  
 
 
 
 
Monday, July 3, 2017
 
 
Treasuries are lower across the curve this morning from Friday's close. The UST 10-Year yield is currently at 2.325% after closing at 2.305% prior.

The market sold off last week as investors digested the comments from global central bankers regarding policy normalization amid improving fundamentals. The U.S. curve steepened as longer-term Treasury yields rose throughout the week. With a short week due to the 4th of July holiday, our economic calendar consists of heavy data, including the release of the FOMC Minutes from the June 14th meeting and the employment report for the month of June.

This morning we received the Markit US Manufacturing PMI for June which read slightly below expectations at 52.00 versus 52.10 per consensus. The June ISM Manufacturing data rose to 57.80 from 54.90 in May, exceeding the expected 55.30 reading per consensus; ISM Prices Paid in June fell to 55.00 from 60.50 in May. Lastly, Construction Spending for May came in below expectations at 0.00% versus a 0.30% increase per consensus after an upwardly revised drop of 0.70% in April.

The curve has bear-flattened with the UST 10-Year up 2.0 bps from prior closing.
 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  07/03 Markit US Manufacturing PMI 06:45 Jun F 52.10 52.00 52.10 -  
                   
  07/03 ISM Manufacturing 07:00 Jun 55.30 57.80 54.90 -  
                   
  07/03 ISM Prices Paid 07:00 Jun 58.50 55.00 60.50 -  
                   
  07/03 Construction Spending MoM 07:00 May 0.30% 0.00% -1.40% -0.70%  
                   
  07/04 No Data - - - - - -  
                   
  07/05 Factory Orders 07:00 May -0.50% - -0.20% -  
                   
  07/05 Durable Goods Orders 07:00 May F -1.00% - -1.10% -  
                   
  07/05 Durables Ex Transportation 07:00 May F - - 0.10% -  
                   
  07/05 FOMC Meeting Minutes 11:00 14 Jun - - - -  
                   
  07/06 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 30 Jun - - -6.20% -  
                   
  07/06 Challenger Job Cuts YoY 04:30 Jun - - 9.70% -  
                   
  07/06 ADP Employment Change 05:15 Jun 188k - 253k -  
                   
  07/06 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 1 Jul 243k - 244k -  
                   
  07/06 Continuing Claims 05:30 24 Jun - - - -  
                   
  07/06 Trade Balance 05:30 May -$46.70b - -$47.60b -  
                   
  07/06 Markit US Services PMI 06:45 Jun F - - 53.00 -  
                   
  07/06 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 2 Jul - - - -  
                   
  07/06 Markit US Composite PMI 06:45 Jun F - - 53.00 -  
                   
  07/07 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls 05:30 Jun 180k - 138k -  
                   
  07/07 Unemployment Rate 05:30 Jun 4.30% - 4.30% -  
                   
  07/07 Average Hourly Earnings MoM 05:30 Jun 0.30% - 0.20% -  
                   
  07/07 Average Hourly Earnings YoY 05:30 Jun - - 2.50% -  
                   
  07/07 Labor Force Participation Rate 05:30 Jun - - 62.70% -  
                   
  07/07 Underemployment Rate 05:30 Jun - - 8.40% -  
                   
 
 
 
 
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