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Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   100-10 (-01.5)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   99-17 (-0.5)  
 
  Support   3.111%  
 
  Resistance   2.759%  
 
 
 
 
Thursday, July 05, 2018
 
 
Treasuries are slightly lower across the curve this morning from Tuesday’s close. The UST 10-Year yield is currently at 2.835% after closing at 2.832% prior.

Treasuries fell overnight and into the open ahead of a busy end of the week which includes the U.S. jobs reports for the month of June and the imposition of tariffs between U.S. and China both scheduled on Friday. This morning we received the June ADP Employment Change which rose 177k following an upwardly revised 189k increase in May; consensus called for a 190k increase month-over-month. Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended June 30 rose 3k to 231k from a revised 228k the week prior. Continuing Claims for the week ended June 23 rose 32k to 1739k from a revised 1707k the week prior.

We also received the June Markit US Services PMI which came in line with expectations at 56.50 and remained unchanged from prior. Markit US Composite PMI showed a slight increase to 56.20 from 56.00 prior. MBA Mortgage Applications for the week ended June 29 fell 0.50% after dropping 4.90% in activities the week prior. Purchase applications slightly increased by 0.50% after falling 5.90% the week prior, while refinancing activities dropped 2.00% following a decrease of 3.50% the week prior. Later today at 11:00 AM (PT), the latest FOMC Minutes will be released.

The curve has bear-flattened with the UST 10-Year yield up 0.3 bp from prior closing.
 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  07/02 Markit US Manufacturing PMI 06:45 Jun F 54.60 55.40 54.60 -  
                   
  07/02 Construction Spending MoM 07:00 May 0.50% 0.40% 1.80% 0.90%  
                   
  07/02 ISM Manufacturing 07:00 Jun 58.50 60.20 58.70 -  
                   
  07/02 ISM Prices Paid 07:00 Jun 75.00 76.80 79.50 -  
                   
  07/03 Factory Orders 07:00 May 0.00% 0.40% -0.80% -0.40%  
                   
  07/03 Durable Goods Orders 07:00 May F -0.50% -0.40% -0.60% -  
                   
  07/03 Durables Ex Transportation 07:00 May F - 0.00% -0.30% -  
                   
  07/04 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 29 Jun - -0.50% -4.90% -  
                   
  07/05 Challenger Job Cuts YoY 04:30 Jun - 19.60% -4.80% -  
                   
  07/05 ADP Employment Change 05:15 Jun 190k 177k 178k 189k  
                   
  07/05 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 30 Jun 225k 231k 227k 228k  
                   
  07/05 Continuing Claims 05:30 23 Jun 1718k 1739k 1705k 1707k  
                   
  07/05 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 1 Jul - 57.60 57.30 -  
                   
  07/05 Markit US Services PMI 06:45 Jun F 56.50 56.50 56.50 -  
                   
  07/05 Markit US Composite PMI 06:45 Jun F - 56.20 56.00 -  
                   
  07/05 FOMC Meeting Minutes 11:00 13 Jun - - - -  
                   
  07/06 Trade Balance 05:30 May -$43.70b - -$46.20b -  
                   
  07/06 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls 05:30 Jun 195k - 223k -  
                   
  07/06 Unemployment Rate 05:30 Jun 3.80% - 3.80% -  
                   
  07/06 Average Hourly Earnings MoM 05:30 Jun 0.30% - 0.30% -  
                   
  07/06 Average Hourly Earnings YoY 05:30 Jun 2.80% - 2.70% -  
                   
  07/06 Labor Force Participation Rate 05:30 Jun 62.70% - 62.70% -  
                   
 
 
 
 
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