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Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   100-15.5 (+04)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   99-21 (+03.5)  
 
  Support   3.111%  
 
  Resistance   2.759%  
 
 
 
 
Friday, July 06, 2018
 
 
Treasuries are slightly higher across the curve this morning from yesterday’s close. The UST 10-Year yield is currently at 2.819% after closing at 2.830% prior.

Treasuries rose overnight as investors digested the economic impact of the first round of tariffs that took effect between U.S. and China last night. Gains extended after a mixed employment data was released this morning for the month of June. Nonfarm Payrolls rose above expectations at 213k versus 195k per consensus, and the May data showed a solid upward revision from 223k to 244k. Private Payrolls also rose above expectations at 202k versus 190k per consensus, and its prior mark was also revised upwardly from 218k to 239k. Furthermore, Manufacturing Payrolls also exceeded expectations which rose 36k versus a surveyed 15k increase, and its previous mark was also slightly revised higher from 18k to 19k.

Unemployment Rate rose 4.00% month-over-month from 3.80% prior; consensus called for the index to remain at 3.80% in June. Underemployment Rate also reflected a slight increase from 7.60% prior to 7.80% in June. The Average Hourly Earnings, which was expected to gain 0.30% in June, rose just 0.20% month-over-month after increasing 0.30% in May. Average Hourly Earnings YoY remained unchanged from prior at 2.70% although it was expected to increase to 2.80% per consensus. Lastly, we received the Trade Balance for May which narrowed to $43.10 Billion from a revised $46.10 Billion deficit the month prior.

The curve has bull-flattened with the UST 10-Year yield down 1.1 bps from prior closing.

Have A Nice Weekend!
 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  07/02 Markit US Manufacturing PMI 06:45 Jun F 54.60 55.40 54.60 -  
                   
  07/02 Construction Spending MoM 07:00 May 0.50% 0.40% 1.80% 0.90%  
                   
  07/02 ISM Manufacturing 07:00 Jun 58.50 60.20 58.70 -  
                   
  07/02 ISM Prices Paid 07:00 Jun 75.00 76.80 79.50 -  
                   
  07/03 Factory Orders 07:00 May 0.00% 0.40% -0.80% -0.40%  
                   
  07/03 Durable Goods Orders 07:00 May F -0.50% -0.40% -0.60% -  
                   
  07/03 Durables Ex Transportation 07:00 May F - 0.00% -0.30% -  
                   
  07/04 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 29 Jun - -0.50% -4.90% -  
                   
  07/05 Challenger Job Cuts YoY 04:30 Jun - 19.60% -4.80% -  
                   
  07/05 ADP Employment Change 05:15 Jun 190k 177k 178k 189k  
                   
  07/05 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 30 Jun 225k 231k 227k 228k  
                   
  07/05 Continuing Claims 05:30 23 Jun 1718k 1739k 1705k 1707k  
                   
  07/05 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 1 Jul - 57.60 57.30 -  
                   
  07/05 Markit US Services PMI 06:45 Jun F 56.50 56.50 56.50 -  
                   
  07/05 Markit US Composite PMI 06:45 Jun F - 56.20 56.00 -  
                   
  07/05 FOMC Meeting Minutes 11:00 13 Jun - - - -  
                   
  07/06 Trade Balance 05:30 May -$43.60b -$43.10b -$46.20b -$46.10b  
                   
  07/06 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls 05:30 Jun 195k 213k 223k 244k  
                   
  07/06 Unemployment Rate 05:30 Jun 3.80% 4.00% 3.80% -  
                   
  07/06 Average Hourly Earnings MoM 05:30 Jun 0.30% 0.20% 0.30% -  
                   
  07/06 Average Hourly Earnings YoY 05:30 Jun 2.80% 2.70% 2.70% -  
                   
  07/06 Labor Force Participation Rate 05:30 Jun 62.70% 62.90% 62.70% -  
                   
 
 
 
 
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