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Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   100-03.5 (-01)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   99-16 (-01)  
 
  Support   3.111%  
 
  Resistance   2.759%  
 
 
 
 
Tuesday, July 10, 2018
 
 
Treasuries are slightly lower across the curve this morning from yesterday’s close. The UST 10-Year yield is currently at 2.861% after closing at 2.857% prior.

Treasuries extended losses overnight and into the open as investors turned their attention on the quarterly corporate earnings and away from the recent trade concerns. Investors are hoping for a strong earnings season after a recent run of solid economic data while setting aside fears on the ongoing trade conflict between U.S. and China. U.S. Stocks inched higher along with equities, and the dollar rose with Treasury yields. This morning we received the NFIB Small Business Optimism for the month of June which fell to 107.20 from 107.80 prior, which was its highest level since 1983. The index was expected to pull back down to 106.90 per consensus, so the reading level was fractionally better than surveyed.

We also received the May JOLTS Job Openings which fell to 6.638 Million from an upwardly revised 6.840 Million prior; consensus called for U.S. job openings to drop to 6.620 Million. The job opening rate in May came in at 4.30% versus 4.40% in the month prior, while the pace of hiring increased to 3.90% in May from 3.80% in the month prior. Later today at 10:00 AM (PT), the first of three Treasury note auctions scheduled this week will begin where the U.S. will sell $33 Billion of 3-Year Notes.

The curve has bear-flattened with the UST 10-Year yield up 0.4 bp from prior closing.
 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  07/09 Consumer Credit 12:00 May $12.000b $24.559b $9.262b $10.273b  
                   
  07/10 NFIB Small Business Optimism 03:00 Jun 106.90 107.20 107.80 -  
                   
  07/10 JOLTS Job Openings 07:00 May 6620 6638 6698 6840  
                   
  07/11 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 6 Jul - - -0.50% -  
                   
  07/11 PPI Final Demand MoM 05:30 Jun 0.20% - 0.50% -  
                   
  07/11 PPI Final Demand YoY 05:30 Jun 3.10% - 3.10% -  
                   
  07/11 Wholesale Trade Sales MoM 07:00 May 0.50% - 0.80% -  
                   
  07/11 Wholesale Inventories MoM 07:00 May F 0.50% - 0.50% -  
                   
  07/12 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 7 Jul 225k - 231k -  
                   
  07/12 Continuing Claims 05:30 30 Jun 1730k - 1739k -  
                   
  07/12 CPI MoM 05:30 Jun 0.20% - 0.20% -  
                   
  07/12 CPI YoY 05:30 Jun 2.90% - 2.80% -  
                   
  07/12 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 8 Jul - - 57.60 -  
                   
  07/12 Monthly Budget Statement 11:00 Jun -$80.00b - -$146.80b -  
                   
  07/13 Import Price Index MoM 05:30 Jun 0.10% - 0.60% -  
                   
  07/13 Import Price Index YoY 05:30 Jun 4.70% - 4.30% -  
                   
  07/13 Export Price Index MoM 05:30 Jun 0.20% - 0.60% -  
                   
  07/13 Export Price Index YoY 05:30 Jun - - 4.90% -  
                   
  07/13 U. of Mich. Sentiment 07:00 Jul P 98.20 - 98.20 -  
                   
 
 
 
 
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