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Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   100-06 (-03.5)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   99-15 (-0.5)  
 
  Support   3.111%  
 
  Resistance   2.813%  
 
 
 
 
Thursday, July 12, 2018
 
 
Treasuries are slightly higher across the curve this morning from yesterday’s close. The UST 10-Year yield is currently at 2.846% after closing at 2.850% prior.

Treasuries lowered overnight and into the open as trade war tensions simmered. China appeared to have toned down its stance after initially promising to take forceful actions in retaliation to the Trump Administration’s statement of imposing additional tariffs. The possibility of reengaging in further trade talks between U.S. and China sparked a rally in riskier assets, pushing Treasury yields higher as investors’ nerves settled. Treasuries have pared most of the overnight losses this morning from mixed June inflation reports.

The June CPI rose just 0.10% MoM versus an expected 0.20% increase per consensus following a 0.20% increase in May; CPI YoY is up to 2.90% from 2.80% prior. CPI excluding Food and Energy rose 0.20% MoM as expected, bringing its YoY up to 2.30% form 2.20% prior. We also received the Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended July 7 which fell 18k to 214k from a revised 232k prior, while Continuing Claims for the week ended June 30 fell 3k to 1739k from a revised 1742k prior. Later today at 10:00 AM (PT), U.S. will auction $14 Billion 30-Year Bonds Reopening. Then at 11:00 AM (PT), the June Monthly Budget Statement will be released which is expected to narrow from $146.80 Billion to $80.00 Billion in deficit.

The curve has bull-flattened with the UST 10-Year yield down 0.4 bp from prior closing.

 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  07/09 Consumer Credit 12:00 May $12.000b $24.559b $9.262b $10.273b  
                   
  07/10 NFIB Small Business Optimism 03:00 Jun 106.90 107.20 107.80 -  
                   
  07/10 JOLTS Job Openings 07:00 May 6620 6638 6698 6840  
                   
  07/11 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 6 Jul - 2.50% -0.50% -  
                   
  07/11 PPI Final Demand MoM 05:30 Jun 0.20% 0.30% 0.50% -  
                   
  07/11 PPI Final Demand YoY 05:30 Jun 3.10% 3.40% 3.10% -  
                   
  07/11 Wholesale Trade Sales MoM 07:00 May 0.50% 2.50% 0.80% 1.40%  
                   
  07/11 Wholesale Inventories MoM 07:00 May F 0.50% 0.60% 0.50% -  
                   
  07/12 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 7 Jul 225k 214k 231k 232k  
                   
  07/12 Continuing Claims 05:30 30 Jun 1730k 1739k 1739k 1742k  
                   
  07/12 CPI MoM 05:30 Jun 0.20% 0.10% 0.20% -  
                   
  07/12 CPI YoY 05:30 Jun 2.90% 2.90% 2.80% -  
                   
  07/12 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 8 Jul - 58.00 57.60 -  
                   
  07/12 Monthly Budget Statement 11:00 Jun -$80.00b - -$146.80b -  
                   
  07/13 Import Price Index MoM 05:30 Jun 0.10% - 0.60% -  
                   
  07/13 Import Price Index YoY 05:30 Jun 4.60% - 4.30% -  
                   
  07/13 Export Price Index MoM 05:30 Jun 0.20% - 0.60% -  
                   
  07/13 Export Price Index YoY 05:30 Jun - - 4.90% -  
                   
  07/13 U. of Mich. Sentiment 07:00 Jul P 98.00 - 98.20 -  
                   
 
 
 
 
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