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Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   100-19 (+11.5)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   102-25.5 (+07)  
 
  Support   2.395%  
 
  Resistance   2.279%  
 
 
 
 
Friday, July 14, 2017
 
 
Treasuries are rallying across the curve this morning after weaker than expected inflation and retail sales data for June were released. The UST 10-Year yield is currently at 2.300% after closing at 2.345% prior.

The recent weakening in the inflation data continued for the month of June. This morning we received the Consumer Price Index report which rose slower than expected, holding flat MoM at 0.00% versus a 0.10% rise per consensus. Core prices excluding Food and Energy MoM rose just 0.10% versus an expected 0.20% jump per consensus. Consumer Price Index YoY fell from 1.90% prior to 1.60%, while core prices excluding Food and Energy held steady at 1.70% YoY.

Consumer spending slowed in Q2 as reflected on this morning's Retail Sales data. June Retail Sales fell 0.20% versus an expected 0.10% rise per consensus. Excluding auto, retail sales also fell 0.20% versus an expected 0.20% rise per consensus, and retail sales excluding auto and gas fell 0.10% versus an expected 0.40% increase per consensus.

The curve has bull-flattened with the UST 10-Year down 4.5 bps from prior closing.

Have A Wonderful Weekend!
 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  07/10 Labor Market Conditions Index Change 07:00 Jun 2.50 1.50 2.30 3.30  
                   
  07/10 Consumer Credit 12:00 May $13.500b $18.410b $8.197b $12.929b  
                   
  07/11 NFIB Small Business Optimism 03:00 Jun 104.40 103.60 104.50 -  
                   
  07/11 JOLTS Job Openings 07:00 May 5950 5666 6044 5967  
                   
  07/11 Wholesale Trade Sales MoM 07:00 May - -0.50% -0.40% -0.30%  
                   
  07/11 Wholesale Inventories MoM 07:00 May F 0.30% 0.40% 0.30% -  
                   
  07/12 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 7 Jul - -7.40% 1.40% -  
                   
  07/12 U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book 11:00 - - - - -  
                   
  07/13 PPI Final Demand MoM 05:30 Jun 0.00% 0.10% 0.00% -  
                   
  07/13 PPI Final Demand YoY 05:30 Jun 1.90% 2.00% 2.40% -  
                   
  07/13 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 8 Jul 245k 247k 248k 250k  
                   
  07/13 Continuing Claims 05:30 1 Jul 1950k 1945k 1956k 1965k  
                   
  07/13 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 9 Jul - 47.00 48.50 -  
                   
  07/13 Monthly Budget Statement 11:00 Jun -$38.00b -$90.20b $6.30b -  
                   
  07/14 CPI MoM 05:30 Jun 0.10% 0.00% -0.10% -  
                   
  07/14 CPI YoY 05:30 Jun 1.70% 1.60% 1.90% -  
                   
  07/14 Retail Sales Advance MoM 05:30 Jun 0.10% -0.20% -0.30% -0.10%  
                   
  07/14 Industrial Production MoM 06:15 Jun 0.30% 0.40% 0.00% 0.10%  
                   
  07/14 Capacity Utilization 06:15 Jun 76.80% 76.60% 76.60% 76.40%  
                   
  07/14 U. of Mich. Sentiment 07:00 Jul P 95.00 93.10 95.10 -  
                   
  07/14 Business Inventories 07:00 May 0.30% 0.30% -0.20% -  
                   
 
 
 
 
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