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Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   100-01 (-11.5)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   99-12 (-07.5)  
 
  Support   3.111%  
 
  Resistance   2.813%  
 
 
 
 
Monday, July 16, 2018
 
 
Treasuries are modestly lower across the curve this morning from Friday’s close. The UST 10-Year yield is currently at 2.861% after closing at 2.828% prior.

Treasuries lowered overnight and extended losses early this morning after U.S. Retail Sales data showed strong upwardly revisions in May. Retail Sales Advance for June rose in line with expectations at 0.50% month-over-month, while May’s initial release was revised higher from 0.80% to 1.30%. Moreover, Retail Sales excluding Auto rose better than expected at 0.40% in June versus a 0.30% increase per consensus, while the May data was also revised higher from 0.90% to 1.40%. Lastly, the Retail Sales excluding Auto and Gas rose 0.30% in June, and its prior mark in May was also upwardly revised from 0.80% to 1.30%.

We also received the Empire Manufacturing print for July which came in better than expected at 22.60 versus 21.00 per consensus; its prior mark remained unchanged at 25.00. On Tuesday we will receive the June Industrial and Manufacturing Production reports as well as the NAHB Housing Market Index for July. Then on Wednesday, we will receive the Housing Starts and Building Permits reports for June, and the Fed’s latest version of its Beige Book will also be available. Lastly, we will have the July Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook and June Leading Index available on Thursday.

The curve has bear-steepened with the UST 10-Year yield up 3.3 bps from prior closing.
 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  07/16 Empire Manufacturing 05:30 Jul 21.00 22.60 25.00 -  
                   
  07/16 Retail Sales Advance MoM 05:30 Jun 0.50% 0.50% 0.80% 1.30%  
                   
  07/16 Business Inventories 07:00 May 0.40% 0.40% 0.30% -  
                   
  07/17 Capacity Utilization 06:15 Jun 78.20% - 77.90% -  
                   
  07/17 NAHB Housing Market Index 07:00 Jul 68.00 - 68.00 -  
                   
  07/17 Total Net TIC Flows 13:00 May - - $138.70b -  
                   
  07/17 Net Long-term TIC Flows 13:00 May - - $93.90b -  
                   
  07/18 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 13 Jul - - 2.50% -  
                   
  07/18 Housing Starts 05:30 Jun 1320k - 1350k -  
                   
  07/18 Housing Starts MoM 05:30 Jun -2.20% - 5.00% -  
                   
  07/18 Building Permits 05:30 Jun 1330k - 1301k -  
                   
  07/18 Building Permits MoM 05:30 Jun 2.20% - -4.60% -  
                   
  07/18 U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book 11:00 - - - - -  
                   
  07/19 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 14 Jul 221k - 214k -  
                   
  07/19 Continuing Claims 05:30 7 Jul 1729k - 1739k -  
                   
  07/19 Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook 05:30 Jul 21.50 - 19.90 -  
                   
  07/19 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 15 Jul - - 58.00 -  
                   
  07/19 Leading Index 07:00 Jun 0.40% - 0.20% -  
                   
  07/19 No Data - - - - - -  
                   
 
 
 
 
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