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Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   100-04 (-01)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   99-15.5 (-01)  
 
  Support   3.111%  
 
  Resistance   2.813%  
 
 
 
 
Tuesday, July 17, 2018
 
 
Treasuries are slightly lower across the curve this morning from yesterday’s close. The UST 10-Year yield is currently at 2.861% after closing at 2.859% prior.

Treasuries inched higher overnight ahead of Fed Chairman Powell’s semi-annual testimony before the Senate Banking Committee scheduled this morning. Powell is expected to make the case for further Fed policy tightening, while markets wait to assess the tone of his testimony. On the economic calendar, we received the Industrial Production report for June which rose 0.60% month-over-month following a revised 0.50% decrease in May. Capacity Utilization rose 78.00% in June after a revised 77.70% increase in May, while the Manufacturing Production rose 0.80% in June after falling a revised 1.00% prior.

We also received the July NAHB Housing Market Index which came in line with expectations and remained unchanged from prior at 68.00. Present single family sales were unchanged from last month at 74.00, while future single family sales fell to 73.00 versus 75.00 last month. Later today at 1:00 PM (PT), the Total Net TIC Flows and Net Long-term TIC Flows for May will be released. Also scheduled later today, Kansas City Fed President George will speak on the economic outlook at an agricultural symposium at 5:00 PM (PT).

The curve has bear-flattened with the UST 10-Year yield up 0.2 bp from prior closing.
 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  07/16 Empire Manufacturing 05:30 Jul 21.00 22.60 25.00 -  
                   
  07/16 Retail Sales Advance MoM 05:30 Jun 0.50% 0.50% 0.80% 1.30%  
                   
  07/16 Business Inventories 07:00 May 0.40% 0.40% 0.30% -  
                   
  07/17 Capacity Utilization 06:15 Jun 78.30% 78.00% 77.90% 77.70%  
                   
  07/17 NAHB Housing Market Index 07:00 Jul 68.00 68.00 68.00 -  
                   
  07/17 Total Net TIC Flows 13:00 May - - $138.70b -  
                   
  07/17 Net Long-term TIC Flows 13:00 May - - $93.90b -  
                   
  07/18 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 13 Jul - - 2.50% -  
                   
  07/18 Housing Starts 05:30 Jun 1320k - 1350k -  
                   
  07/18 Housing Starts MoM 05:30 Jun -2.20% - 5.00% -  
                   
  07/18 Building Permits 05:30 Jun 1330k - 1301k -  
                   
  07/18 Building Permits MoM 05:30 Jun 2.20% - -4.60% -  
                   
  07/18 U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book 11:00 - - - - -  
                   
  07/19 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 14 Jul 220k - 214k -  
                   
  07/19 Continuing Claims 05:30 7 Jul 1729k - 1739k -  
                   
  07/19 Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook 05:30 Jul 21.50 - 19.90 -  
                   
  07/19 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 15 Jul - - 58.00 -  
                   
  07/19 Leading Index 07:00 Jun 0.40% - 0.20% -  
                   
  07/19 No Data - - - - - -  
                   
 
 
 
 
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