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Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   102-17 (+05)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   102-06.5 (+03)  
 
  Support   3.237%  
 
  Resistance   1.939%  
 
 
 
 
Wednesday, July 17, 2019
 
 
Treasury Yields Slightly Lower as Corporate Earnings Season Continues
 
 
Market opened today’s session with treasuries inching higher across all maturities. 10-Year Treasury yield is at 2.0903, 1.23 bps decreased from prior closing of 2.1026.

US stock index futures drifted from mixed corporate earnings results while Treasuries edged higher this morning. Major indices erased some of its early gains as Bank of America’s net interest income which fell short of analysts’ expectations overshadowed its better-than-expected earnings driven by its strong retail banking operation. United Airline posted strong earnings and revenue results while CSX reported weaker-than-expected results. Since the earnings season began earlier this week, more than 7% of S&P 500 companies have reported their second quarter results so far and about 85% of those companies came in above analysts’ expectations. On the trade front, President Trump reiterated that he could add more tariffs on China if he wants which dented recently renewed investor sentiment overnight. Meanwhile, Fed Chair Powell’s speech yesterday reemphasized his dovishness but didn’t have much impact on the markets, suggesting easing monetary policy may have been fully priced in. Elsewhere, WTI crude traded slightly above $58 a barrel this morning.

MBA Mortgage Applications index fell 1.10% after falling 2.40% in prior week. Purchases decreased 3.80% and refinances increased 1.50% after rising 2.30% and falling 6.50% in prior week, respectively. Housing Starts in June dipped to 1253k from a downwardly revised prior of 1265k vs. 1260k consensus. Building Permits in June also slipped to 1220k following an upwardly revised prior of 1299k vs. 1300k consensus. Later today, the Beige Book will be released at 11:00 AM (PT).

The curve has bull-flattened with UST 10-Year yield down 1.23 bps.
 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  07/15 Empire Manufacturing 05:30 Jul 2.00 4.30 -8.60 -  
                   
  07/16 Import Price Index MoM 05:30 Jun -0.60% -0.90% -0.30% 0.00%  
                   
  07/16 Import Price Index YoY 05:30 Jun -2.30% -2.00% -1.50% -1.10%  
                   
  07/16 Export Price Index MoM 05:30 Jun -0.20% -0.70% -0.20% -  
                   
  07/16 Export Price Index YoY 05:30 Jun - -1.60% -0.70% -0.80%  
                   
  07/16 Retail Sales Advance MoM 05:30 Jun 0.20% 0.40% 0.50% 0.40%  
                   
  07/16 Industrial Production MoM 06:15 Jun 0.10% 0.00% 0.40% -  
                   
  07/16 Capacity Utilization 06:15 Jun 78.10% 77.90% 78.10% -  
                   
  07/16 NAHB Housing Market Index 07:00 Jul 64.00 65.00 64.00 -  
                   
  07/17 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 12 Jul - -1.10% -2.40% -  
                   
  07/17 Housing Starts 05:30 Jun 1260k 1253k 1269k 1265k  
                   
  07/17 Housing Starts MoM 05:30 Jun -0.70% -0.90% -0.90% -0.40%  
                   
  07/17 Building Permits 05:30 Jun 1300k 1220k 1294k 1299k  
                   
  07/17 Building Permits MoM 05:30 Jun 0.10% -6.10% 0.30% 0.70%  
                   
  07/17

U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige

Book

11:00 - - - - -  
                   
  07/18 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 13 Jul 216k - 209k -  
                   
  07/18 Continuing Claims 05:30 6 Jul 1700k - 1723k -  
                   
  07/18 Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook 05:30 Jul 5.00 - 0.30 -  
                   
  07/18 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 14 Jul - - 63.80 -  
                   
  07/18 Leading Index 07:00 Jun 0.10% - 0.00% -  
                   
  07/19 U. of MichSentiment 07:00 Jul P 98.80 - 98.20 -
                   
 
 
 
 
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