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Market Commentary

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Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   100-04 (00)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   99-18 (+02)  
 
  Support   3.111%  
 
  Resistance   2.813%  
 
 
 
 
Wednesday, July 18, 2018
 
 
Treasuries are little changed across the curve this morning from yesterday’s close. The UST 10-Year yield is currently at 2.859% after closing at 2.861% prior.

Treasuries held steady overnight ahead of Fed Chairman Powell’s scheduled appearance before the House Financial Services Committee this morning in which he will speak further on monetary policy and the current state of the economy. Yesterday in his semi-annual testimony before the Senate, Powell provided an upbeat assessment on the U.S. economy, reiterating that the best way forward is to gradually raise fed funds. The Fed’s latest Beige Book will also be available later today at 11:00 AM (PT) in anticipation of the FOMC’s next meeting in August.

On the economic calendar, we received the June Housing Starts which fell 12.30% month-over-month following a revised 4.80% increase in May. The 1173k unit rate received, which fell from 1337k revised prior, was lower than expected as consensus called for 1320k unit rate in June. Building Permits dropped 2.20% month-over-month after falling 4.60% in May, bringing the unit rate down from 1301k prior to 1273k in June. MBA Mortgage Applications fell 2.50% for the week ended July 13 after rising 2.50% the week prior. Purchase applications dropped 5.20% following a 6.50% increase the week prior, while refinancing activities rose 2.20% after falling 3.80% the week prior.

The curve has bull-steepened with the UST 10-Year yield down 0.2 bp from prior closing.
 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  07/16 Empire Manufacturing 05:30 Jul 21.00 22.60 25.00 -  
                   
  07/16 Retail Sales Advance MoM 05:30 Jun 0.50% 0.50% 0.80% 1.30%  
                   
  07/16 Business Inventories 07:00 May 0.40% 0.40% 0.30% -  
                   
  07/17 Capacity Utilization 06:15 Jun 78.30% 78.00% 77.90% 77.70%  
                   
  07/17 NAHB Housing Market Index 07:00 Jul 68.00 68.00 68.00 -  
                   
  07/17 Total Net TIC Flows 13:00 May - $69.90b $138.70b $233.10b  
                   
  07/17 Net Long-term TIC Flows 13:00 May - $45.60b $93.90b $94.00b  
                   
  07/18 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 13 Jul - -2.50% 2.50% -  
                   
  07/18 Housing Starts 05:30 Jun 1320k 1173k 1350k 1337k  
                   
  07/18 Housing Starts MoM 05:30 Jun -2.20% -12.30% 5.00% 4.80%  
                   
  07/18 Building Permits 05:30 Jun 1330k 1273k 1301k -  
                   
  07/18 Building Permits MoM 05:30 Jun 2.20% -2.20% -4.60% -  
                   
  07/18 U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book 11:00 - - - - -  
                   
  07/19 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 14 Jul 220k - 214k -  
                   
  07/19 Continuing Claims 05:30 7 Jul 1729k - 1739k -  
                   
  07/19 Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook 05:30 Jul 21.50 - 19.90 -  
                   
  07/19 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 15 Jul - - 58.00 -  
                   
  07/19 Leading Index 07:00 Jun 0.40% - 0.20% -  
                   
  07/19 No Data - - - - - -  
                   
 
 
 
 
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  This information is provided solely for informational use and is not intended as trading or investment advice in any manner whatsoever. Sun West Mortgage Company, Inc. is not a licensed or registered broker or dealer and cannot provide investment strategies or recommendations. This information is provided to licensed brokers/lenders only and may not be copied or distributed to customers or potential customers. All loans are subject to approval. Certain restrictions may apply. Listed pricing is a morning indication only. Program rates, prices, guidelines, fees, costs, terms and conditions are subject to change without notice  
 
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