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Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   102-24.5 (-0.5)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   102-08.5 (+0.5)  
 
  Support   3.237%  
 
  Resistance   1.939%  
 
 
 
 
Thursday, July 18, 2019
 
 
Treasury Yields Rise on Economic Data and Trade Concerns
 
 
Market opened today’s session with treasuries selling-off across all maturities. 10-Year Treasury yield is at 2.0746, 2.95 bps increased from prior closing of 2.0451.

Both stock futures and Treasuries slipped as investors weighed the latest batch of corporate earnings and the outlook of global trade. Netflix plunged in premarket after reporting a surprise loss in US customers and much slower international membership growth. Morgan Stanley, however, managed to remain calm after posting the steepest trading slide on Wall Street. Meanwhile, IBM declined after reporting its fourth consecutive revenue under performance. Later today, Microsoft Corp will post their second quarter result after the bell. On the trade front, despite of a recent truce between the two countries, the ongoing standoff appears to hit another roadblock, raising concerns about whether the US and China will actually return to the negotiating table. President Trump complained about China’s lack of agricultural concessions and their insistence on the easing of current restriction on Huawei. Elsewhere, WTI crude edged below $57 a barrel this morning.

Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook in July surged to 21.80 from 0.30 prior vs. 5.00 consensus, marking the most improvement since June 2009 when the last recession ended. Initial Jobless Claims came in line with consensus of 216k from a downwardly revised prior of 208k. Continuing Claims edged lower to 1686k vs. 1700k consensus, following an upwardly revised prior of 1728k. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort index printed 64.70 vs. 63.80 prior. Lastly, Leading Index slipped to -0.30% from 0.00% prior vs. 0.10% consensus. Later today, New York Fed President Williams will give keynote address on monetary policy at annual meeting of the Central Bank Research Association in New York. Also, the US Treasury is scheduled to auction off $35 billion of 4-week bills and $35 billion of 8-week bills at 8:30 AM (PT), and 10-year TIPS at 10:00 AM (PT).

The curve has bear-steepened with UST 10-Year yield up 2.95 bps.
 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  07/15 Empire Manufacturing 05:30 Jul 2.00 4.30 -8.60 -  
                   
  07/16 Import Price Index MoM 05:30 Jun -0.60% -0.90% -0.30% 0.00%  
                   
  07/16 Import Price Index YoY 05:30 Jun -2.30% -2.00% -1.50% -1.10%  
                   
  07/16 Export Price Index MoM 05:30 Jun -0.20% -0.70% -0.20% -  
                   
  07/16 Export Price Index YoY 05:30 Jun - -1.60% -0.70% -0.80%  
                   
  07/16 Retail Sales Advance MoM 05:30 Jun 0.20% 0.40% 0.50% 0.40%  
                   
  07/16 Industrial Production MoM 06:15 Jun 0.10% 0.00% 0.40% -  
                   
  07/16 Capacity Utilization 06:15 Jun 78.10% 77.90% 78.10% -  
                   
  07/16 NAHB Housing Market Index 07:00 Jul 64.00 65.00 64.00 -  
                   
  07/17 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 12 Jul - -1.10% -2.40% -  
                   
  07/17 Housing Starts 05:30 Jun 1260k 1253k 1269k 1265k  
                   
  07/17 Housing Starts MoM 05:30 Jun -0.70% -0.90% -0.90% -0.40%  
                   
  07/17 Building Permits 05:30 Jun 1300k 1220k 1294k 1299k  
                   
  07/17 Building Permits MoM 05:30 Jun 0.10% -6.10% 0.30% 0.70%  
                   
  07/17

U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige

Book

11:00 - - - - -  
                   
  07/18 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 13 Jul 216k 216K 209k 208K  
                   
  07/18 Continuing Claims 05:30 6 Jul 1700k 1686K 1723k 1728K  
                   
  07/18 Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook 05:30 Jul 5.00 21.80 0.30 -  
                   
  07/18 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 14 Jul - 64.70 63.80 -  
                   
  07/18 Leading Index 07:00 Jun 0.10% -0.30% 0.00% -  
                   
  07/19 U. of MichSentiment 07:00 Jul P 98.80 - 98.20 -
                   
 
 
 
 
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