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Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   100-04 (+04)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   99-17.5 (+02.5)  
 
  Support   3.111%  
 
  Resistance   2.813%  
 
 
 
 
Thursday, July 19, 2018
 
 
Treasuries are slightly higher across the curve this morning from yesterday’s close. The UST 10-Year yield is currently at 2.859% after closing at 2.870% prior.

Treasuries extended losses overnight as markets continued to digest? Fed Chairman Powell’s positive assessment on the U.S. economy and yesterday’s release of the Fed’s latest Beige Book that reported a steadiness in the growth of the economy. Treasuries have pared most of the overnight losses this morning after some discouraging corporate earnings results pushed U.S. Stocks and equities lower. On the economic calendar, we received the July Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook which beat expectations with its index reporting at 25.70 versus 21.50 per consensus; its previous level remained unchanged at 19.90.

Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended July 14 fell to its lowest level since 1969 at 207k following its revised mark of 215k the week prior. The recent run of low claims suggests that the labor market remains very tight which is consistent with the Fed’s assessments. Continuing Claims, which lags a week behind, rose 8k to 1751k for the week ended July 7 from its previously revised mark of 1743k the week prior. Lastly, we received the Conference Board US Leading Index for the month of June which rose 0.50% month-over-month following a 0.20% increase in May.

The curve has bull-flattened with the UST 10-Year yield down 1.1 bps from prior closing.
 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  07/16 Empire Manufacturing 05:30 Jul 21.00 22.60 25.00 -  
                   
  07/16 Retail Sales Advance MoM 05:30 Jun 0.50% 0.50% 0.80% 1.30%  
                   
  07/16 Business Inventories 07:00 May 0.40% 0.40% 0.30% -  
                   
  07/17 Capacity Utilization 06:15 Jun 78.30% 78.00% 77.90% 77.70%  
                   
  07/17 NAHB Housing Market Index 07:00 Jul 68.00 68.00 68.00 -  
                   
  07/17 Total Net TIC Flows 13:00 May - $69.90b $138.70b $233.10b  
                   
  07/17 Net Long-term TIC Flows 13:00 May - $45.60b $93.90b $94.00b  
                   
  07/18 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 13 Jul - -2.50% 2.50% -  
                   
  07/18 Housing Starts 05:30 Jun 1320k 1173k 1350k 1337k  
                   
  07/18 Housing Starts MoM 05:30 Jun -2.20% -12.30% 5.00% 4.80%  
                   
  07/18 Building Permits 05:30 Jun 1330k 1273k 1301k -  
                   
  07/18 Building Permits MoM 05:30 Jun 2.20% -2.20% -4.60% -  
                   
  07/18 U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book 11:00 - - - - -  
                   
  07/19 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 14 Jul 220k 207k 214k 215k  
                   
  07/19 Continuing Claims 05:30 7 Jul 1729k 1751k 1739k 1743k  
                   
  07/19 Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook 05:30 Jul 21.50 25.70 19.90 -  
                   
  07/19 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 15 Jul - 58.80 58.00 -  
                   
  07/19 Leading Index 07:00 Jun 0.40% 0.50% 0.20% 0.00%  
                   
  07/19 No Data - - - - - -  
                   
 
 
 
 
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