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Market Commentary

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Market Commentary


Tuesday
July 22, 2014
10-YEAR NOTES   100-08 (+01)
2.468%
FN 3.5% COUPON   102-18 (+03)
SUPPORT   2.800%
RESISTANCE   2.470%
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The CPI (MoM) for June increased +0.3% vs. +0.4% prior, matching expectations. The core measure, which excludes food and fuel, increased +0.1% (consensus +0.2%). Year-over-year CPI rose +2.1% and the core rose +1.9%. Rising gasoline costs accounted for two-thirds of the total increase, posting their biggest gain since June 2013. The FHFA House Price Index for May outpaced expectations (consensus +0.2%), at +0.4% after coming in flat in April. Existing home sales are expected to advance +1.9% for June following a +4.9% gain in May. The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for July is expected to rise to 5 vs. 3 prior. 30-Year bond yields broke and closed below their 2014 rate lows yesterday as continued tension in the Middle East and Ukraine kept the flight to quality bid. 10-Year rally resistance ultimately held yesterday, but rates are still within striking distance of a technical breakout. Mortgages continue to outperform, tightening 2 ticks and the curve has moderately bull steepened with 2s10s up +1.3 bps.

This Week's Events:

DATE EVENT TIME PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED
07/22 CPI MoM 05:30 June 0.3% 0.3% 0.4% -
07/22 CPI YoY 05:30 June 2.1% 2.1% 2.1% -
07/22 FHFA House Price Index MoM 06:00 May 0.2% 0.4% 0.0% 0.1%
07/22 Richmond Fed Manufacturing 07:00 July 5 - 3 -
07/22 Existing Home Sales 07:00 June 4.99 Million - 4.89 Million -
07/22 Existing Home Sales MoM 07:00 June 1.9% - 4.9% -
07/23 04:00 July 18 - - -3.6% -
07/24 Jobless Claims 05:30 July 19 307K - 302K -
07/24 Markit PMI 06:45 July P 57.5 - 57.3 -
07/24 New Home Sales 07:00 June 475K - 504K -
07/24 New Home Sales MoM 07:00 June -5.8% - 18.6% -
07/24 08:00 July 6 - 6 -
07/25 Durable Goods Order 05:30 June 0.5% - -1.0% -0.9%

 

 

 
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