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Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   99-18.5 (-08)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   99-07.5 (-05)  
 
  Support   3.111%  
 
  Resistance   2.813%  
 
 
 
 
Monday, July 23, 2018
 
 
Treasuries are lower across the curve this morning from Friday’s close. The UST 10-Year yield is currently at 2.924% after closing at 2.894% prior.

Treasuries held steady overnight as investors digested remarks from finance leaders on the increasing risks of the trade war between U.S. and China to the world economy. This week’s economic calendar kicked off with the Chicago Fed National Activity Index for the month of June which came in at 0.43 following a downwardly revised -0.45 reading prior. Also on deck, we received the Existing Home Sales for the month of June which fell 0.60% month-over-month following a revised 0.70% drop in May. Consensus called for a 0.20% increase, but Existing Home Sales declined for a third straight month as the unit rate dropped from a revised 5.41 Million prior to 5.38 Million in June.

The remainder of this week’s calendar consists of Tuesday’s FHFA House Price Index for May and the June Markit US PMI preliminary readings, Wednesday’s New Home Sales data for the month of June, Thursday’s June Wholesale Inventories and Durable Goods Orders, and Friday’s advance 2Q GDP reports. Investors will primarily be focused on Friday’s GDP reports with the growth expected to exceed 4.00% per consensus after just a 2.00% growth reported prior. We also have Treasury auctions on tap this week beginning with Tuesday’s $35 Billion 2-Year Notes, Wednesday’s $36 Billion 5-Year Notes, and concluding with Thursday’s $30 Billion 7-Year Notes.

The curve has bear-steepened with the UST 10-Year yield up 3.0 bps from prior closing.
 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  07/23 Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index 05:30 Jun 0.25 0.43 -0.15 -0.45  
                   
  07/23 Existing Home Sales 07:00 Jun 5.44m 5.38m 5.43m 5.41m  
                   
  07/23 Existing Home Sales? MoM 07:00 Jun 0.20% -0.60% -0.40% -0.70%  
                   
  07/24 FHFA House Price Index MoM 06:00 May 0.40% - 0.10% -  
                   
  07/24 Markit US Manufacturing PMI 06:45 Jul P 55.10 - 55.40 -  
                   
  07/24 Markit US Services PMI 06:45 Jul P 56.30 - 56.50 -  
                   
  07/24 Markit US Composite PMI 06:45 Jul P - - 56.20 -  
                   
  07/24 Richmond Fed Manufact. Index 07:00 Jul 18.00 - 20.00 -  
                   
  07/25 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 20 Jul - - -2.50% -  
                   
  07/25 New Home Sales 07:00 Jun 669k - 689k -  
                   
  07/25 New Home Sales MoM 07:00 Jun -3.00% - 6.70% -  
                   
  07/26 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 21 Jul 215k - 207k -  
                   
  07/26 Continuing Claims 05:30 14 Jul 1735k - 1751k -  
                   
  07/26 Wholesale Inventories MoM 05:30 Jun P 0.30% - 0.60% -  
                   
  07/26 Durable Goods Orders 05:30 Jun P 3.00% - -0.40% -  
                   
  07/26 Durables Ex Transportation 05:30 Jun P 0.50% - 0.00% -  
                   
  07/26 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 22 Jul - - 58.80 -  
                   
  07/26 Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity 08:00 Jul 25.00 - 28.00 -  
                   
  07/27 GDP Annualized QoQ 05:30 2Q A 4.20% - 2.00% -  
                   
  07/27 Personal Consumption 05:30 2Q A 3.00% - 0.90% -  
                   
  07/27 GDP Price Index 05:30 2Q A 2.30% - 2.20% -  
                   
  07/27 Core PCE QoQ 05:30 2Q A 2.20% - 2.30% -  
                   
  07/27 U. of Mich. Sentiment 07:00 Jul F 97.10 - 97.10 -  
                   
 
 
 
 
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