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Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   99-10.5 (+05)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   99-05 (+03.5)  
 
  Support   3.111%  
 
  Resistance   2.813%  
 
 
 
 
Thursday, July 26, 2018
 
 
Treasuries are higher across the curve this morning from yesterday's close. The UST 10-Year yield is currently at 2.953% after closing at 2.975% prior.

Treasuries fell late into yesterday's session after a positive meeting between President Trump and European Commission President Juncker that concluded with an agreement to suspend new tariffs while continuing to negotiate trade talks. Most of Wednesday's losses were pared this morning as U.S. Stocks lowered overnight after Facebook's disappointing earnings report. On the economic calendar, we received the Advance Goods Trade Balance for June which showed the deficit widened to $68.30 Billion from $64.80 Billion prior. We also received the Wholesale Inventories for June which came in unchanged at 0.00% following a downwardly revised increase of 0.40% prior. Retail Inventories also came in unchanged at 0.00% following an unrevised 0.40% rise prior.

The June Durable Goods Orders rose 1.00% after slipping 0.30% revised prior, while Durables excluding transportation rose 0.40% from an upwardly revised 0.30% increase prior. Capital Goods Orders came in slightly higher than expected at 0.60% versus 0.50% per consensus, and Capital Goods Shipments rose 1.00% versus an expected 0.40% increase per consensus. Lastly, we received the Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended July 21 which rose 9k to 217k from a revised 208k the week prior, while Continuing Claims fell 8k to 1745k from a revised 1753k the week prior. Later today at 10:00 AM (PT), U.S. will auction $30 Billion 7-Year Notes.

The curve has bull-flattened with the UST 10-Year yield down 2.2 bps from prior closing.
 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  07/23 Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index 05:30 Jun 0.25 0.43 -0.15 -0.45  
                   
  07/23 Existing Home Sales 07:00 Jun 5.44m 5.38m 5.43m 5.41m  
                   
  07/23 Existing Home Sales MoM 07:00 Jun 0.20% -0.60% -0.40% -0.70%  
                   
  07/24 FHFA House Price Index MoM 06:00 May 0.30% 0.20% 0.10% 0.20%  
                   
  07/24 Markit US Manufacturing PMI 06:45 Jul P 55.10 55.50 55.40 -  
                   
  07/24 Markit US Services PMI 06:45 Jul P 56.30 56.20 56.50 -  
                   
  07/24 Markit US Composite PMI 06:45 Jul P - 55.90 56.20 -  
                   
  07/24 Richmond Fed Manufact. Index 07:00 Jul 18.00 20.00 20.00 21.00  
                   
  07/25 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 20 Jul - -0.20% -2.50% -  
                   
  07/25 New Home Sales 07:00 Jun 668k 631k 689k 666k  
                   
  07/25 New Home Sales MoM 07:00 Jun -3.10% -5.30% 6.70% 3.90%  
                   
  07/26 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 21 Jul 215k 217k 207k 208k  
                   
  07/26 Continuing Claims 05:30 14 Jul 1733k 1745k 1751k 1753k  
                   
  07/26 Wholesale Inventories MoM 05:30 Jun P 0.30% 0.00% 0.60% 0.40%  
                   
  07/26 Durable Goods Orders 05:30 Jun P 3.00% 1.00% -0.40% -0.30%  
                   
  07/26 Durables Ex Transportation 05:30 Jun P 0.50% 0.40% 0.00% 0.30%  
                   
  07/26 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 22 Jul - 59.00 58.80 -  
                   
  07/26 Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity 08:00 Jul 25.00 - 28.00 -  
                   
  07/27 GDP Annualized QoQ 05:30 2Q A 4.20% - 2.00% -  
                   
  07/27 Personal Consumption 05:30 2Q A 3.00% - 0.90% -  
                   
  07/27 GDP Price Index 05:30 2Q A 2.30% - 2.20% -  
                   
  07/27 Core PCE QoQ 05:30 2Q A 2.20% - 2.30% -  
                   
  07/27 U. of Mich. Sentiment 07:00 Jul F 97.10 - 97.10 -  
                   
 
 
 
 
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