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Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   102-18.5 (00)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   102-08 (-0.5)  
 
  Support   3.237%  
 
  Resistance   1.939%  
 
 
 
 
Friday, July 26, 2019
 
 
Treasury Yields Steady, U.S. Stocks Open Higher
 
 
Market opened today’s session with treasuries relatively flat from prior close. The 10-Year Treasury yield is currently at 2.085 after closing at 2.082 prior.

Markets were fairly quiet overnight following the ECB headlines yesterday as investors shifted their focus back to next week’s FOMC meeting, while also digesting more mixed corporate earnings. Treasuries were slightly higher prior to the release of the 2Q GDP report, but nudged lower as the GDP Annualized grew 2.10% quarter-over-quarter versus an expected 1.80% growth per consensus. U.S. stocks opened stronger this morning despite the better than expected increase in gross domestic product with the continued expectation for a Fed rate cut in next week’s policy meeting outweighing the data. In corporate earnings, Twitter and Alphabet rallied after their sales beat estimates, pushing the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indices towards record highs. Meanwhile, Amazon slipped slightly lower that its estimated earnings.

More on the economic calendar, the first quarter GDP report remained unchanged at its 3.10% growth. Personal Consumption rose 4.30% in quarter two against an expected 4.00% growth, while the first quarter’s report was revised higher from 0.90% to 1.10%. GDP Price Index also came in stronger than expected, jumping 2.40% versus 2.00% per consensus; 1Q was also revised higher from 0.90% to 1.10%. Lastly, the Core PCE rose 1.80%, slightly weaker than the expected 2.00% increase, while 1Q report also showed a slight downward revision from 1.20% to 1.10%.

The curve has bear-flattened with the UST 10-Year yield slightly up 0.3 bp from prior closing.
 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  07/22 Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index 05:30 Jun 0.08 -0.02 -0.05 -0.03  
                   
  07/23 FHFA House Price Index MoM 06:00 May 0.40% 0.10% 0.40% -  
                   
  07/23 Richmond Fed Manufact. Index 07:00 Jul 5.00 -12.00 3.00 2.00  
                   
  07/23 Existing Home Sales 07:00 Jun 5.32m 5.27m 5.34m 5.36m  
                   
  07/23 Existing Home Sales MoM 07:00 Jun -0.40% -1.70% 2.50% 2.90%  
                   
  07/24 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 19 Jul - -1.90% -1.10% -  
                   
  07/24 Markit US Manufacturing PMI 06:45 Jul P 51.00 50.00 50.60 -  
                   
  07/24 Markit US Services PMI 06:45 Jul P 51.80 52.20 51.50 -  
                   
  07/24 Markit US Composite PMI 06:45 Jul - 51.60 51.50 -  
                   
  07/24 New Home Sales 07:00 Jun 658k 646k 626k 604k  
                   
  07/24 New Home Sales MoM 07:00 Jun 5.10% 7.00% -7.80% -8.20%  
                   
  07/25 Durable Goods Orders 05:30 Jun P 0.70% 2.00% -1.30% -2.30%  
                   
  07/25 Durables Ex Transportation 05:30 Jun P 0.20% 1.20% 0.40% 0.50%  
                   
  07/25 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 20 Jul 218k 206k 216k -  
                   
  07/25 Continuing Claims 05:30 13 Jul 1688k 1676k 1686k 1689k  
                   
  07/25 Wholesale Inventories MoM 05:30 Jun P 0.50% 0.20% 0.40% -  
                   
  07/25 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 21 Jul - 63.70 64.70 -  
                   
  07/25 Kansas City Fed ManfActivity 08:00 Jul 3.00 - 0.00 -  
                   
  07/26 GDP Annualized QoQ 05:30 2Q A 1.80% 2.10% 3.10% -  
                   
  07/26 Personal Consumption 05:30 2Q A 4.00% 4.30% 0.90% 1.10%  
                   
  07/26 GDP Price Index 05:30 2Q A 2.00% 2.40% 0.90% 1.10%  
                   
  07/26 Core PCE QoQ 05:30 2Q A 2.00% 1.80% 1.20% 1.10%
                   
 
 
 
 
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