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Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   100-15.5 (-07.5)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   102-25 (-03)  
 
  Support   2.335%  
 
  Resistance   2.225%  
 
 
 
 
Thursday, July 27, 2017
 
 
Treasuries are lower across the curve this morning from yesterday's close. The UST 10-Year yield is currently at 2.310% after closing at 2.288% prior.

Yesterday the FOMC meeting concluded with the Fed keeping the rates unchanged in a unanimous decision as expected. On the FOMC Statement, the Fed signaled that they expect to begin implementing the balance sheet normalization "relatively soon". Furthermore, comments on inflation were rather dovish compared to previous statements prior to this meeting.

This morning we received Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending on July 22nd which rose 10k to 244k from an upwardly revised 234k the week prior. Continuing Claims for the week ending on July 15th fell 13k to 1964k from 1977k the week prior. We also received Durable Goods Orders for June, which rose 6.50% after dropping 0.10% (revised) prior. Durables Excluding Transportation rose 0.20% after gaining 0.60% (revised) prior. Capital Goods New Orders Nondefense Ex Aircraft fell 0.10% after an upwardly revise gain of 0.70% prior, and core Ex Aircraft Capital Goods shipments rose 0.20% after rising 0.40% (revised) prior. Lastly, Wholesale Inventories MoM rose above expectations at 0.60% versus a 0.30% increase per consensus, and Retail Inventories MoM rose 0.60% showing another big upside following a 0.60% rise in May.

The curve has bear-steepened with the UST 10-Year up 2.2 bps from prior closing.
 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  07/24 Markit US Manufacturing PMI 06:45 Jul P 52.30 53.20 52.00 -  
                   
  07/24 Markit US Services PMI 06:45 Jul P 54.20 54.20 54.20 -  
                   
  07/24 Markit US Composite PMI 06:45 Jul P - 54.20 53.00 53.90  
                   
  07/24 Existing Home Sales 07:00 Jun 5.57m 5.52m 5.62m -  
                   
  07/24 Existing Home Sales MoM 07:00 Jun -0.90% -1.80% 1.10% -  
                   
  07/25 FHFA House Price Index MoM 06:00 May 0.50% 0.40% 0.70% 0.60%  
                   
  07/25 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA 06:00 May 0.30% 0.10% 0.28% -0.18%  
                   
  07/25 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA 06:00 May 5.80% 5.69% 5.67% 5.77%  
                   
  07/25 Richmond Fed Manufact. Index 07:00 Jul 7.00 14.00 7.00 11.00  
                   
  07/26 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 21 Jul - 0.40% 6.30% -  
                   
  07/26 New Home Sales 07:00 Jun 615k 610k 610k 605k  
                   
  07/26 New Home Sales MoM 07:00 Jun 0.80% 0.80% 2.90% 4.90%  
                   
  07/26 FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) 11:00 26 Jul 1.25% 1.25% 1.25% -  
                   
  07/26 FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) 11:00 26 Jul 1.00% 1.00% 1.00% -  
                   
  07/27 Durable Goods Orders 05:30 Jun P 3.90% 6.50% -0.80% -0.10%  
                   
  07/27 Durables Ex Transportation 05:30 Jun P 0.40% 0.20% 0.30% 0.60%  
                   
  07/27 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 22 Jul 240k 244k 233k 234k  
                   
  07/27 Continuing Claims 05:30 15 Jul 1960k 1964k 1977k -  
                   
  07/27 Wholesale Inventories MoM 05:30 Jun P 0.30% 0.60% 0.40% -  
                   
  07/27 Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index 05:30 Jun 0.37 0.13 -0.26 -0.30  
                   
  07/27 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 23 Jul - - 47.60 -  
                   
  07/27 Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity 08:00 Jul 12.00 - 11.00 -  
                   
  07/28 Employment Cost Index 05:30 2Q 0.60% - 0.80% -  
                   
  07/28 GDP Annualized QoQ 05:30 2Q A 2.50% - 1.40% -  
                   
  07/28 Personal Consumption 05:30 2Q A 2.90% - 1.10% -  
                   
  07/28 GDP Price Index 05:30 2Q A 1.30% - 1.90% -  
                   
  07/28 Core PCE QoQ 05:30 2Q A 0.70% - 2.00% -  
                   
  07/28 U. of Mich. Sentiment 05:30 Jul F 93.10 - 93.10 -  
                   
 
 
 
 
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