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Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   99-09 (+06)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   99-03.5 (+03)  
 
  Support   3.111%  
 
  Resistance   2.813%  
 
 
 
 
Friday, July 27, 2018
 
 
Treasuries are higher across the curve this morning from yesterday's close. The UST 10-Year yield is currently at 2.957% after closing at 2.977% prior.

Treasuries held steady overnight and into the open as investors awaited the 2Q GDP report released this morning. At the release of the report, the dollar fell and Treasuries rose as the data reflected that the U.S. economy expanded at a slower pace than expected. GDP Annualized grew 4.10% QoQ versus an expected 4.20% growth per consensus, following an upwardly revised 2.20% growth in the first quarter. Consumer spending gained more than expected at 4.00% versus 3.00% per consensus, while its first quarter data was revised down from 0.90% to 0.50%. GDP Price Index also rose more than expected at 3.00% versus 2.30% per survey, but its first quarter print also showed a downward revision from 2.20% to 2.00%. Lastly, the Core PCE came in shy of expectations at 2.00% versus 2.20% per consensus, and its previous mark of 2.30% was revised down to 2.20%.

We also received the final reading of the July University of Michigan Sentiment which came in higher than expected at 97.90 versus 97.10 per consensus. Its previous mark remained unchanged at 97.10. The University of Michigan 1 year inflation came in at 2.90% which was unchanged from its prior mark and the 5-10 year inflation showed 2.40% which was also unchanged from its prior mark. The August FOMC meeting is scheduled next week which will begin on Tuesday and conclude on Wednesday with the Fed's announcement of its latest monetary policy.

The curve has bull-flattened with the UST 10-Year yield down 2.0 bps from prior closing.

Have A Wonderful Weekend!
 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  07/23 Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index 05:30 Jun 0.25 0.43 -0.15 -0.45  
                   
  07/23 Existing Home Sales 07:00 Jun 5.44m 5.38m 5.43m 5.41m  
                   
  07/23 Existing Home Sales MoM 07:00 Jun 0.20% -0.60% -0.40% -0.70%  
                   
  07/24 FHFA House Price Index MoM 06:00 May 0.30% 0.20% 0.10% 0.20%  
                   
  07/24 Markit US Manufacturing PMI 06:45 Jul P 55.10 55.50 55.40 -  
                   
  07/24 Markit US Services PMI 06:45 Jul P 56.30 56.20 56.50 -  
                   
  07/24 Markit US Composite PMI 06:45 Jul P - 55.90 56.20 -  
                   
  07/24 Richmond Fed Manufact. Index 07:00 Jul 18.00 20.00 20.00 21.00  
                   
  07/25 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 20 Jul - -0.20% -2.50% -  
                   
  07/25 New Home Sales 07:00 Jun 668k 631k 689k 666k  
                   
  07/25 New Home Sales MoM 07:00 Jun -3.10% -5.30% 6.70% 3.90%  
                   
  07/26 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 21 Jul 215k 217k 207k 208k  
                   
  07/26 Continuing Claims 05:30 14 Jul 1733k 1745k 1751k 1753k  
                   
  07/26 Wholesale Inventories MoM 05:30 Jun P 0.30% 0.00% 0.60% 0.40%  
                   
  07/26 Durable Goods Orders 05:30 Jun P 3.00% 1.00% -0.40% -0.30%  
                   
  07/26 Durables Ex Transportation 05:30 Jun P 0.50% 0.40% 0.00% 0.30%  
                   
  07/26 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 22 Jul - 59.00 58.80 -  
                   
  07/26 Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity 08:00 Jul 25.00 23.00 28.00 -  
                   
  07/27 GDP Annualized QoQ 05:30 2Q A 4.20% 4.10% 2.00% 2.20%  
                   
  07/27 Personal Consumption 05:30 2Q A 3.00% 4.00% 0.90% 0.50%  
                   
  07/27 GDP Price Index 05:30 2Q A 2.30% 3.00% 2.20% 2.00%  
                   
  07/27 Core PCE QoQ 05:30 2Q A 2.20% 2.00% 2.30% 2.20%  
                   
  07/27 U. of Mich. Sentiment 07:00 Jul F 97.10 97.90 97.10 -  
                   
 
 
 
 
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