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Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   100-18 (+02.5)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   102-26.5 (+01.5)  
 
  Support   2.335%  
 
  Resistance   2.225%  
 
 
 
 
Friday, July 28, 2017
 
 
Treasuries are slightly lower across the curve this morning from yesterday's close. The UST 10-Year yield is currently at 2.317% after closing at 2.311% prior.

This morning we received the much anticipated data on the second quarter economic growth, which expanded 2.60%, while first quarter growth was revised down to 1.20% growth from 1.40%; consensus estimated a 2.70% growth in 2Q, so the data was slightly disappointing and below expectations. Personal spending, which is the largest component of economic activity, rose at a solid 2.80% pace which was in line with expectations after an upwardly revised increase of 1.90% prior. GDP Price Index rose 1.00% after an upwardly revised increase of 2.00% prior, and Core PCE quarter-over-quarter rose 0.90% after rising 1.80% (revised) prior.

We also received the 2Q Employment Cost Index, an indicator for wage growth, came in below expectations at 0.50% versus a 0.60% growth per consensus despite the recently low unemployment rate data we've received. There is one Fed Speak on deck today at 10:20 AM (PT) featuring Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari who will participate in a Q&A setting from a moderator at a town hall in Oakdale, Minnesota.

The curve has bear-steepened with the UST 10-Year up 0.6 bp from prior closing.

Have A Wonderful Weekend!
 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  07/24 Markit US Manufacturing PMI 06:45 Jul P 52.30 53.20 52.00 -  
                   
  07/24 Markit US Services PMI 06:45 Jul P 54.20 54.20 54.20 -  
                   
  07/24 Markit US Composite PMI 06:45 Jul P - 54.20 53.00 53.90  
                   
  07/24 Existing Home Sales 07:00 Jun 5.57m 5.52m 5.62m -  
                   
  07/24 Existing Home Sales MoM 07:00 Jun -0.90% -1.80% 1.10% -  
                   
  07/25 FHFA House Price Index MoM 06:00 May 0.50% 0.40% 0.70% 0.60%  
                   
  07/25 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA 06:00 May 0.30% 0.10% 0.28% -0.18%  
                   
  07/25 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA 06:00 May 5.80% 5.69% 5.67% 5.77%  
                   
  07/25 Richmond Fed Manufact. Index 07:00 Jul 7.00 14.00 7.00 11.00  
                   
  07/26 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 21 Jul - 0.40% 6.30% -  
                   
  07/26 New Home Sales 07:00 Jun 615k 610k 610k 605k  
                   
  07/26 New Home Sales MoM 07:00 Jun 0.80% 0.80% 2.90% 4.90%  
                   
  07/26 FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) 11:00 26 Jul 1.25% 1.25% 1.25% -  
                   
  07/26 FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) 11:00 26 Jul 1.00% 1.00% 1.00% -  
                   
  07/27 Durable Goods Orders 05:30 Jun P 3.90% 6.50% -0.80% -0.10%  
                   
  07/27 Durables Ex Transportation 05:30 Jun P 0.40% 0.20% 0.30% 0.60%  
                   
  07/27 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 22 Jul 240k 244k 233k 234k  
                   
  07/27 Continuing Claims 05:30 15 Jul 1960k 1964k 1977k -  
                   
  07/27 Wholesale Inventories MoM 05:30 Jun P 0.30% 0.60% 0.40% -  
                   
  07/27 Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index 05:30 Jun 0.37 0.13 -0.26 -0.30  
                   
  07/27 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 23 Jul - 47.60 47.60 -  
                   
  07/27 Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity 08:00 Jul 12.00 10.00 11.00 -  
                   
  07/28 Employment Cost Index 05:30 2Q 0.60% 0.50% 0.80% -  
                   
  07/28 GDP Annualized QoQ 05:30 2Q A 2.70% 2.60% 1.40% 1.20%  
                   
  07/28 Personal Consumption 05:30 2Q A 2.80% 2.80% 1.10% 1.90%  
                   
  07/28 GDP Price Index 05:30 2Q A 1.30% 1.00% 1.90% 2.00%  
                   
  07/28 Core PCE QoQ 05:30 2Q A 0.70% 0.90% 2.00% 1.80%  
                   
  07/28 U. of Mich. Sentiment 07:00 Jul F 93.20 93.40 93.10 -  
                   
 
 
 
 
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