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Market Commentary


Tuesday
July 29, 2014
10-YEAR NOTES   100-12 (+09)
2.456%
FN 3.5% COUPON   102-17.5 (+06.5)
SUPPORT   2.800%
RESISTANCE   2.470%
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Another quiet day for the data calendar ahead of tomorrow’s FOMC Statement and the 2Q Advanced GDP release. The Case-Shiller Home Price Index slowed in April to +0.2% from +1.2% in March. As this dataset is smoothed by the three-month average, April’s monthly change must have been quite weak. Year-on-year the rate in April slowed to 10.8% from 12.3% in March. For May, the Case-Shiller Home Price index fell -0.31% MoM (consensus +0.3%) and the year-on-year rate declined to 9.34% (consensus +9.9%). The Consumer Confidence Index rose to 85.2 in June vs. 82.2 in May. This was the fourth straight month that the index was over 80, above which indicates that optimists are out ahead of pessimists. Consumer Confidence for July is expected to edge up to 85.4. The curve has bull flattened with 2s10s down -3.2 bps.

This Week's Events:

DATE EVENT TIME PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED
07/29 Case Shiller Home Price Index 06:00 May 171.25 170.64 168.71 -
07/29 Consumer Confidence Index 07:00 July 85.4 90.9 85.2 -
07/30 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 July 25 - - 2.4% -
07/30 ADP Employment Change 05:15 July 230 K - 281 K -
07/30 GDP Annualized QoQ 05:30 2Q A 3.0% - -2.9% -
07/30 Personal Consumption 05:30 2Q A 1.9% - 1.0% -
07/30 Fed QE3 Pace 11:00 July $25 Billion - $35 Billion -
07/30 FOMC Rate Decision 11:00 July 30 0.25% - 0.25% -
07/31 Employment Cost Index 05:30 2Q 0.5% - 0.3% -
07/31 Jobless Claims 05:30 July 26 300 K - 284 K -
07/31 Continuing Claims 05:30 July 19 2492 K - 2500 K -
08/01 Nonfarm Payrolls 05:30 July 231 K - 288 K -
08/01 Unemployment Rate 05:30 July 6.1% - 6.1% -
08/01 Personal Income 05:30 June 0.4% - 0.4% -
08/01 Personal Spending 05:30 June 0.4% - 0.2% -
08/01 Markit US Manufacturing PMI 06:45 July F 56.5 - 56.3 -
08/01 ISM Manufacturing 07:00 July 56.0 - 55.3 -

 

 

 
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