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Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   102-25 (+04)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   102-09 (-0.5)  
 
  Support   3.237%  
 
  Resistance   1.939%  
 
 
 
 
Monday, July 29, 2019
 
 
Treasury Yields Lower as Investors Await Fed Decision
 
 
Market opened today’s session with treasuries advancing across all maturities. 10-Year Treasury yield is at 2.0546, 1.57 bps decreased from prior closing of 2.0703.

US stock index futures edged lower at the start of an action packed week including the Fed decision, trade talks, and the US jobs report. With the market fully pricing in a quarter basis point rate cut which will mark the first rate cut since 2008, investors will carefully parse Fed Chair Powell’s post-meeting press conference on Wednesday to gauge the trajectory of interest rates as gradual policy easing may begin. Meanwhile, negotiators from the US and China will begin two days of talks tomorrow, picking up where they left off three months ago. However, neither side has signaled much hope for a breakthrough this time. In corporate news, generic drug maker Mylan NV and Pfizer gained in premarket after the announcement of their plans for a merger. Corporate earnings season also continues with Apple, Rio Tinto, Toyota, and BMW scheduled to post their results this week. Elsewhere, WTI crude slightly gained, trading above $56 a barrel this morning.

Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity index in July printed -6.30 following -12.10 in prior vs. -6.00 consensus. Later today, the US Treasury is scheduled to auction off $36 billion of 3-month bills and $36 billion of 6-month bills at 8:30 AM (PT).

The curve has bull-flattened with UST 10-Year yield down 1.57 bps.
 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  07/29 Dallas Fed ManfActivity 07:30 Jul -6.00 -6.30 -12.10 -  
                   
  07/30 Personal Income 05:30 Jun 0.40% - 0.50% -  
                   
  07/30 Personal Spending 05:30 Jun 0.30% - 0.40% -  
                   
  07/30 PCE Deflator MoM 05:30 Jun 0.10% - 0.20% -  
                   
  07/30 PCE Deflator YoY 05:30 Jun 1.50% - 1.50% -  
                   
  07/30 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA 06:00 May 0.20% - 0.00% -  
                   
  07/30 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA 06:00 May 2.40% - 2.54% -  
                   
  07/30 Pending Home Sales MoM 07:00 Jun 0.50% - 1.10% -  
                   
  07/30 Pending Home Sales NSA YoY 07:00 Jun 0.70% - -0.80% -  
                   
  07/31 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 26 Jul - - -1.90% -  
                   
  07/31 ADP Employment Change 05:15 Jul 150k - 102k -  
                   
  07/31 Employment Cost index  05:30 2Q 0.70% - 0.70% -  
                   
  07/31 FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) 11:00 31 Jul 2.25% - 2.50% -  
                   
  07/31 FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) 11:00 31 Jul 2.00% - 2.25% -  
                   
  08/01 Challenger Job Cuts YoY 04:30 Jul - - 12.80% -  
                   
  08/01 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 27 Jul 214k - 206k -  
                   
  08/01 Continuing Claims 05:30 20 Jul 1679k - 1676k -  
                   
  08/01 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 28 Jul - - 63.70 -  
                   
  08/01 Markit US Manufacturing PMI 06:45 Jul F 50.00 - 50.00 -  
                   
  08/01 ISM Manufacturing 07:00 Jul 52.00 - 51.70 -  
                   
  08/01 ISM Prices Paid 07:00 Jul 49.00 - 47.90 -  
                   
  08/01 Construction Spending MoM 07:00 Jun 0.30% - -0.80% -  
                   
  08/02 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls 08:00 Jul 165k - 224k -  
                   
  08/02 Unemployment Rate 05:30 Jul 3.70% - 3.70% -  
                   
  08/02 Average Hourly Earnings MoM 05:30 Jul 0.20% - 0.20% -  
                   
  08/02 Average Hourly Earnings YoY 05:30 Jul 3.10% - 3.10% -  
                   
  08/02 Labor Force Participation Rate 05:30 Jul 62.90% - 62.90% -  
                   
  08/02 Trade Balance 05:30 Jun -54.60b - -55.50b -  
                   
  08/02 Factory Orders 07:00 Jun 0.70% - -0.70% -  
                   
  08/02 Durable Goods Orders 07:00 Jun F - - 2.00% -  
                   
  08/02 Durables Ex Transportation 07:00 Jun F - - 1.20% -  
                   
  08/02 U. of MichSentiment 07:00 Jul F 98.50 - 98.40 -
                   
 
 
 
 
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