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Market Commentary



 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   100-13.5 (-00.5)  
 
  FN 2.5% Coupon   104-29 (+04)  
 
  Support   2.065%  
 
  Resistance   0.559%  
 
 
 
 
  Wednesday, July 29, 2020
 
 

Treasury Yields drift lower in a continued flight away from risk

 
 
Market opened today’s session with the short end of treasuries decreasing while longer term yields increased. 10-Year Treasury yield is at 0.5823, vacillating around the close of 0.5790.

FOMC rate decision is expected to be a non-event around rates and purchases with limited revisions to June’s statement. On the back of the pandemic, exports and imports have both fallen, but exports more so as the trade deficit remains wide. Consumer Confidence continues to wane as the headline dropped from 98.30 to 92.60 missing expectations of 95.00. Origination volumes and margins continue to remain near all-time highs. Weakness in the USD continues to prevail as DXY continues to fall from its close at 94.435. Equities remain challenged this week as it continues to be difficult to take a pulse on corporate America as the expected economic rebound from stimulus and re-openings lose momentum. Earnings from 3M and McDonald’s missed expectations. The market’s confidence is not helped by the lack of agreement in Congress on stimulus as unemployment benefits are set to expire on Friday and emergency lending facilities expiration date looms on the horizon. As expected, Gold continues to reach new all-time highs in the 1,950s.

The curve has steepened with UST 10-Year yield close to flat.
 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  07/27 Durable Goods Orders 05:30 Jun P 6.90% 7.30% 15.70% 15.10%  
                   
  07/27 Durables Ex Transportation 05:30 Jun P 3.60% 3.30% 3.70% 3.60%  
                   
  07/27 Dallas Fed Manf. Activity 07:30 Jul -4.80 -3.00 -6.10 -  
                   
  07/28 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA 06:00 May 0.30% 0.04% 0.33% 0.24%  
                   
  07/28 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA 06:00 May 4.00% 3.69% 3.98% 3.91%  
                   
  07/28 Richmond Fed Manufact. Index 07:00 Jul 5.00 10.00 0.00 -  
                   
  07/29 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 24 Jul - -0.80% 4.10% -  
                   
  07/30 GDP Annualized QoQ 05:30 2Q A -34.50% - -5.00% -  
                   
  07/30 Personal Consumption 05:30 2Q A -34.50% - -6.80% -  
                   
  07/30 GDP Price Index 05:30 2Q A 0.00% - 1.40% -  
                   
  07/30 Core PCE QoQ 05:30 2Q A -0.90% - 1.70% -  
                   
  07/30 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 25 Jul 1430k - 1416k -  
                   
  07/30 Continuing Claims 05:30 18 Jul 16250k - 16197k -  
                   
  07/30 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 26 Jul - - 44.70 -  
                   
  07/31 Personal Income 05:30 Jun -0.70% - -4.20% -  
                   
  07/31 Personal Spending 05:30 Jun 5.20% - 8.20% -  
                   
  07/31 PCE Deflator MoM 05:30 Jun 0.40% - 0.10% -  
                   
  07/31 PCE Deflator YoY 05:30 Jun 0.90% - 0.50% -  
                   
  07/31 U. of Mich. Sentiment 07:00 Jul F 72.80 - 73.20 -
                   
 
 
 
 
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