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Market Commentary

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Market Commentary


Wednesday
July 30, 2014
10-YEAR NOTES   99-30 (-12) 2.502%
FN 3.5% COUPON   102-07.5 (-08)
SUPPORT   2.800%
RESISTANCE   2.470%
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MBA Mortgage Applications lost their footing during the July 25th week, declining -2.2% vs. +2.4% prior (-30.2% YoY). Purchases edged higher at +0.2% vs. +0.3% prior (-11.8% YoY) and refinancing fell a sizeable -4.0% vs. +4.1% prior (-41% YoY). The average interest rate for a 30-Year conforming loan remained flat for the third consecutive week at 4.33%. ADP Employment Change disappointed expectations of 230K, coming in at 218K vs. 281K prior which points to slightly weaker expectations for Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls. GDP increased at an annual rate of 4% in the second quarter advanced estimate and the first quarter GDP was revised to -2.1%. The increase in real GDP Q2 primarily reflected positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures (+2.5%), private inventory investment (+1.6%), exports (+9.5%), nonresidential fixed investment (+5.5%), state and local government spending (+3.1%), and residential fixed investment (+1.9%). At 11:00 AM (PDT) the Fed releases their statement and rate decision and consensus is for a $10 Billion decrease in asset purchases coupled with a stagnant 0.25% rate decision. Treasuries have tumbled to session lows following the hotter than expected GDP report and the curve has bear steepened with 2s10s up 1.6 bps.

This Week's Events:

DATE EVENT TIME PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED
07/30 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 July 25 - -2.2% 2.4% -
07/30 ADP Employment Change 05:15 July 230 K 218 K 281 K -
07/30 GDP Annualized QoQ 05:30 2Q A 3.0% 4.0% -2.9% -2.1%
07/30 Personal Consumption 05:30 2Q A 1.9% 2.5% 1.0% 1.2%
07/30 Fed QE3 Pace 11:00 July $25 Billion - $35 Billion -
07/30 FOMC Rate Decision 11:00 July 30 0.25% - 0.25% -
07/31 Employment Cost Index 05:30 2Q 0.5% - 0.3% -
07/31 Jobless Claims 05:30 July 26 300 K - 284 K -
07/31 Continuing Claims 05:30 July 19 2492 K - 2500 K -
08/01 Nonfarm Payrolls 05:30 July 231 K - 288 K -
08/01 Unemployment Rate 05:30 July 6.1% - 6.1% -
08/01 Personal Income 05:30 June 0.4% - 0.4% -
08/01 Personal Spending 05:30 June 0.4% - 0.2% -
08/01 Markit US Manufacturing PMI 06:45 July F 56.5 - 56.3 -
08/01 ISM Manufacturing 07:00 July 56.0 - 55.3 -

 

 

 
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This information is provided solely for informational use and is not intended as a trading or investment advice in any manner whatsoever. Sun West Mortgage Company, Inc. is not liscensed or registered broker or dealer and cannot provide investment strategies or recommendations. This information is provided to brokers/lenders only and may not be copied or distributed to customers or potential customers. All loans are subject to approval. Certain restrictions may apply. Listed pricing is a morning indication only. Program rates, price, guidelines, fees, costs, terms and conditions are subject to change without notice.