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Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   99-04 (-05.5)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   98-31.5 (-03.5)  
 
  Support   3.111%  
 
  Resistance   2.813%  
 
 
 
 
Monday, July 30, 2018
 
 
Treasuries are lower across the curve this morning from Friday's close. The UST 10-Year yield is currently at 2.985% after closing at 2.955% prior.

Treasuries fell overnight and into the open to begin the week ahead of a busy economic calendar and central bank policy decisions. Central banks are likely to dominate most of this week's headlines as Japan, the U.K., Brazil, India and the U.S. are all scheduled to meet and announce their latest monetary policy paths and decisions. Investors are expecting the BOJ to announce a tweak to its yield-curve control policy, while the Bank of England is expected to announce a rate hike. Meanwhile, the Feds are not expected to announce another rate hike at the conclusion of its meeting on Wednesday, but investors will be focused on the Feds' confidence level on inflation.

This week's economic calendar kicked off with the June Pending Home Sales which rose 0.90% month-over-month following a 0.50% drop prior. The remainder of this week's calendar consists of Tuesday's PCE Inflation, Personal Income and Personal Spending for June and Wednesday's Construction Spending and ISM reports for June. Then on Thursday, we will receive the June Factory Orders, Durable Goods Orders and Capital Goods reports. Finally, we will have the employment reports for the month of July available on Friday to conclude the week.

The curve has bear-steepened with the UST 10-Year yield up 3.0 bps from prior closing.
 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  07/30 Pending Home Sales MoM 07:00 Jun 0.10% 0.90% -0.50% -  
                   
  07/30 Pending Home Sales NSA YoY 07:00 Jun - -4.00% -2.80% -  
                   
  07/30 Dallas Fed Manf. Activity 07:30 Jul 31.00 32.30 36.50 -  
                   
  07/31 Personal Income 05:30 Jun 0.40% - 0.40% -  
                   
  07/31 Personal Spending 05:30 Jun 0.40% - 0.20% -  
                   
  07/31 PCE Deflator MoM 05:30 Jun 0.10% - 0.20% -  
                   
  07/31 PCE Deflator YoY 05:30 Jun 2.30% - 2.30% -  
                   
  07/31 PCE Core MoM 05:30 Jun 0.10% - 0.20% -  
                   
  07/31 PCE Core YoY 05:30 Jun 2.00% - 2.00% -  
                   
  07/31 Employment Cost Index 05:30 2Q 0.70% - 0.80% -  
                   
  07/31 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA 06:00 May 0.20% - 0.20% -  
                   
  07/31 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA 06:00 May 6.35% - 6.56% -  
                   
  08/01 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 27 Jul - - -0.20% -  
                   
  08/01 ADP Employment Change 05:15 Jul 185k - 177k -  
                   
  08/01 Markit US Manufacturing PMI 06:45 Jul F 55.50 - 55.50 -  
                   
  08/01 Construction Spending MoM 07:00 Jun 0.30% - 0.40% -  
                   
  08/01 ISM Manufacturing 07:00 Jul 59.30 - 60.20 -  
                   
  08/01 ISM Prices Paid 07:00 Jul 75.30 - 76.80 -  
                   
  08/01 FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) 11:00 1 Aug 2.00% - 2.00% -  
                   
  08/01 FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) 11:00 1 Aug 1.75% - 1.75% -  
                   
  08/02 Challenger Job Cuts YoY 04:30 Jul - - 19.60% -  
                   
  08/02 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 28 Jul 220k - 217k -  
                   
  08/02 Continuing Claims 05:30 21 Jul 1750k - 1745k -  
                   
  08/02 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 29 Jul - - 59.00 -  
                   
  08/02 Factory Orders 07:00 Jun 0.70% - 0.40% -  
                   
  08/02 Durable Goods Orders 07:00 Jun F - - 1.00% -  
                   
  08/02 Durables Ex Transportation 07:00 Jun F - - 0.40% -  
                   
  08/03 Trade Balance 05:30 Jun -$46.50b - -$43.10b -  
                   
  08/03 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls 05:30 Jul 190k - 213k -  
                   
  08/03 Unemployment Rate 05:30 Jul 3.90% - 4.00% -  
                   
  08/03 Average Hourly Earnings MoM 05:30 Jul 0.30% - 0.20% -  
                   
  08/03 Average Hourly Earnings YoY 05:30 Jul 2.70% - 2.70% -  
                   
  08/03 Labor Force Participation Rate 05:30 Jul - - 62.90% -  
                   
  08/03 Markit US Services PMI 06:45 Jul F 56.20 - 56.20 -  
                   
  08/03 Markit US Composite PMI 06:45 Jul F - - 55.90 -  
                   
 
 
 
 
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