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Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   102-23 (-03.5)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   102-10 (-01)  
 
  Support   3.237%  
 
  Resistance   1.939%  
 
 
 
 
Tuesday, July 30, 2019
 
 
Treasury Yields Remain Nearly Unchanged as FOMC Meeting Begins
 
 
Market opened today’s session with treasuries drifting across all maturities. 10-Year Treasury yield is at 2.0649, 0.01 bp decreased from prior closing of 2.0650.

American stock futures declined as President Trump renewed criticism on China in a series of tweets, dampening hopes for a breakthrough with the two countries resuming talks today. He said that China continues to rip off America and they haven’t been keeping their pledges to buy US agricultural goods. Treasuries and the dollar drifted as investors awaited the Fed’s rate decision tomorrow which is widely expected to be a 25 basis point cut. As the market is perceived to have a rate cut already priced in, the focus will be on Fed Chair Powell’s post-meeting press conference for trajectory of interest rates in the near future. President Trump also chimed in on tomorrow’s rate decision that the Fed should enact a large rate cut. In corporate news, Apple is scheduled to report their earnings after the bell today with investors expecting a slump in iPhone sales. Under Armour slumped and Procter & Gamble gained on earnings results. Elsewhere, WTI crude advanced, trading above $57 a barrel this morning.

Personal Income in June came in line with both consensus and revised prior of 0.40%. Personal Spending in June also came in line with 0.30% consensus but below an upwardly revised prior of 0.50%. S&P CoreLogic CS 20-city home price index in May decelerated for a 14th straight month, underscoring moderation in the housing market. The YoY change slipped to 2.39% from a downwardly revised prior of 2.53% vs. 2.40% consensus. On the contrary, Pending Home Sales in June climbed to 2.80% above consensus of 0.50%, following 1.10% in prior. Lastly, Conference Board Consumer Confidence index in July also rose to 135.70 from an upwardly revised prior of 124.30.

The curve has steepened with UST 10-Year yield down 0.01 bp.
 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  07/29 Dallas Fed ManfActivity 07:30 Jul -6.00 -6.30 -12.10 -  
                   
  07/30 Personal Income 05:30 Jun 0.40% 0.40% 0.50% 0.40%  
                   
  07/30 Personal Spending 05:30 Jun 0.30% 0.30% 0.40% 0.50%  
                   
  07/30 PCE Deflator MoM 05:30 Jun 0.10% 0.10% 0.20% 0.10%  
                   
  07/30 PCE Deflator YoY 05:30 Jun 1.50% 1.40% 1.50% 1.40%  
                   
  07/30 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA 06:00 May 0.20% 0.14% 0.00% 0.03%  
                   
  07/30 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA 06:00 May 2.40% 2.39% 2.54% 2.53%  
                   
  07/30 Pending Home Sales MoM 07:00 Jun 0.50% 2.80% 1.10% -  
                   
  07/30 Pending Home Sales NSA YoY 07:00 Jun 0.70% -0.60% -0.80% -  
                   
  07/31 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 26 Jul - - -1.90% -  
                   
  07/31 ADP Employment Change 05:15 Jul 150k - 102k -  
                   
  07/31 Employment Cost index  05:30 2Q 0.70% - 0.70% -  
                   
  07/31 FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) 11:00 31 Jul 2.25% - 2.50% -  
                   
  07/31 FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) 11:00 31 Jul 2.00% - 2.25% -  
                   
  08/01 Challenger Job Cuts YoY 04:30 Jul - - 12.80% -  
                   
  08/01 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 27 Jul 214k - 206k -  
                   
  08/01 Continuing Claims 05:30 20 Jul 1679k - 1676k -  
                   
  08/01 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 28 Jul - - 63.70 -  
                   
  08/01 Markit US Manufacturing PMI 06:45 Jul F 50.00 - 50.00 -  
                   
  08/01 ISM Manufacturing 07:00 Jul 52.00 - 51.70 -  
                   
  08/01 ISM Prices Paid 07:00 Jul 49.00 - 47.90 -  
                   
  08/01 Construction Spending MoM 07:00 Jun 0.30% - -0.80% -  
                   
  08/02 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls 08:00 Jul 165k - 224k -  
                   
  08/02 Unemployment Rate 05:30 Jul 3.70% - 3.70% -  
                   
  08/02 Average Hourly Earnings MoM 05:30 Jul 0.20% - 0.20% -  
                   
  08/02 Average Hourly Earnings YoY 05:30 Jul 3.10% - 3.10% -  
                   
  08/02 Labor Force Participation Rate 05:30 Jul 62.90% - 62.90% -  
                   
  08/02 Trade Balance 05:30 Jun -54.60b - -55.50b -  
                   
  08/02 Factory Orders 07:00 Jun 0.70% - -0.70% -  
                   
  08/02 Durable Goods Orders 07:00 Jun F - - 2.00% -  
                   
  08/02 Durables Ex Transportation 07:00 Jun F - - 1.20% -  
                   
  08/02 U. of MichSentiment 07:00 Jul F 98.50 - 98.40 -
                   
 
 
 
 
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