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Market Commentary



 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   100-26 (+01.5)  
 
  FN 2.5% Coupon   105-01.5 (+02.5)  
 
  Support   2.014%  
 
  Resistance   0.520%  
 
 
 
 
  Friday, July 31, 2020
 
 

Treasury Yields Remain Flat as Stocks Struggle from Energy Sector

 
 
Market opened today’s session with treasuries drifting across all maturities. 10-Year Treasury yield is at 0.5412, 0.50 bp decreased from prior closing of 0.5462.

Stocks fell today as losses in energy producers offset stellar quarterly results from some of the biggest tech companies including Amazon, Apple and Facebook. Energy giants, Exxon Mobil and Chevron posted their worst losses in a generation as the pandemic significantly reduced demand. However, results from Apple, Amazon, Facebook and Alphabet showed that the tech industry has been thriving in this environment. Treasuries drifted and gold spiked to an all-time high, crossing the $2,000 an ounce mark for the first time as investors continued to seek safe-haven. On the economic front, both Personal Income and Personal Spending in June came in below consensuses of -0.60% and 5.20% at -1.10% and 5.60%, respectively as the resurgent coronavirus led to renewed business closings and layoffs. MNI Chicago PMI in July, however, rose to 51.90 from 36.60 prior vs. 44.00 consensus and lastly, University of Michigan Sentiment edged lower to 72.50 from 73.20 as the climb in virus cases dampened the optimism over the economic recovery. With the current $600 per week extra unemployment benefits expiring today, Congress failed to reach an agreement on extending the extra benefits.

The curve has steepened with UST 10-Year yield down 0.50 bp.
 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  07/27 Durable Goods Orders 05:30 Jun P 6.90% 7.30% 15.70% 15.10%  
                   
  07/27 Durables Ex Transportation 05:30 Jun P 3.60% 3.30% 3.70% 3.60%  
                   
  07/27 Dallas Fed Manf. Activity 07:30 Jul -4.80 -3.00 -6.10 -  
                   
  07/28 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA 06:00 May 0.30% 0.04% 0.33% 0.24%  
                   
  07/28 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA 06:00 May 4.00% 3.69% 3.98% 3.91%  
                   
  07/28 Richmond Fed Manufact. Index 07:00 Jul 5.00 10.00 0.00 -  
                   
  07/29 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 24 Jul - -0.80% 4.10% -  
                   
  07/30 GDP Annualized QoQ 05:30 2Q A -34.50% -32.90% -5.00% -  
                   
  07/30 Personal Consumption 05:30 2Q A -34.50% -34.60% -6.80% -6.90%  
                   
  07/30 GDP Price Index 05:30 2Q A -0.10% -1.80% 1.40% -  
                   
  07/30 Core PCE QoQ 05:30 2Q A -0.90% -1.10% 1.70% 1.60%  
                   
  07/30 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 25 Jul 1445k 1434k 1416k 1422k  
                   
  07/30 Continuing Claims 05:30 18 Jul 16200k 17018k 16197k 16151k  
                   
  07/30 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 26 Jul - 44.30 44.70 -  
                   
  07/31 Personal Income 05:30 Jun -0.60% -1.10% -4.20% -4.40%  
                   
  07/31 Personal Spending 05:30 Jun 5.20% 5.60% 8.20% 8.50%  
                   
  07/31 PCE Deflator MoM 05:30 Jun 0.40% 0.40% 0.10% -  
                   
  07/31 PCE Deflator YoY 05:30 Jun 0.90% 0.80% 0.50% -  
                   
  07/31 U. of Mich. Sentiment 07:00 Jul F 72.90 72.50 73.20 -
                   
 
 
 
 
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