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Market Commentary

Market Commentary

August 01, 2014
10-YEAR NOTES   99-26 (+09) 2.521%
FN 3.5% COUPON   102-05 (-09)
SUPPORT   2.800%
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Total Nonfarm Payrolls increased by 209K in July (consensus 230K), and the Unemployment Rate edged up to 6.2% vs. 6.1% prior (consensus 6.1%). The majority of job gains occurred in: professional and business services (+47K jobs), manufacturing (+28K jobs), retail trade (+27K jobs), and construction (+22K jobs). The number of long-term unemployment was largely unchanged at 3.2 Million in July, down by a total of 1.1 Million year-over-year. Personal Income for May rose +0.4% while Personal Spending edged up +0.2%. Personal Income and Personal Spending were in-line with consensus for June, both at +0.4%. The Markit US Manufacturing PMI is expected to rise to 56.5 vs. 56.3 prior, ISM Manufacturing is expected to increase to 56.5 vs. 56.3 prior, and Construction Spending (MoM) is expected to edge up +0.5% vs. +0.1% prior. Treasuries rose by half a point following the Nonfarm Payroll report which showed that the US added fewer jobs than expected, further reducing speculation that the Fed will accelerate a reduction in asset purchases. The curve has bull steepened with 2s10s up 2.6 bps.     

Have a great weekend everyone!

Today's Events:

08/01 Nonfarm Payrolls 05:30 July 230 K 209 K 288 K 298 K
08/01 Unemployment Rate 05:30 July 6.1% 6.2% 6.1% -
08/01 Personal Income 05:30 June 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% -
08/01 Personal Spending 05:30 June 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.3%
08/01 Markit US Manufacturing PMI 06:45 July F 56.5 - 56.3 -
08/01 ISM Manufacturing 07:00 July 56.0 - 55.3 -



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