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Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   98-29 (-11.5)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   98-28.5 (-06.5)  
 
  Support   3.111%  
 
  Resistance   2.813%  
 
 
 
 
Wednesday, August 01, 2018
 
 
Market opened today's session with 10-Year treasury yield at 3.001, 3.93 bps increased from prior closing of 2.9617.

Treasuries slid across all maturities into the opening which marked the highest 10-Year treasury yield in 10 weeks as investors anticipate the Fed's rate decision later today. Stock market painted a mixed picture with the slightly lower Dow and the slightly higher S&P 500 after China warned to retaliate if the US carries out the increase of import tariffs.

In economic calendar today, the labor market tightened as companies added the most workers in five months with ADP employment change indicating 219k vs the survey of 186k; a 42k increase from the prior print of 177k. The US June Construction spending MoM slowed down to -1.10% vs consensus of 0.30%. Also, ISM Manufacturing cooled down to 58.10 from 60.20 prior as new orders fell to the lowest in more than a year. The Fed will release its anticipated rate decision today at 11:00 AM (PT).

The curve has bear-steepened with UST 10-Year yield up 3.93 bps.
 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  07/30 Pending Home Sales MoM 07:00 Jun 0.10% 0.90% -0.50% -  
                   
  07/30 Pending Home Sales NSA YoY 07:00 Jun - -4.00% -2.80% -  
                   
  07/30 Dallas Fed Manf. Activity 07:30 Jul 31.00 32.30 36.50 -  
                   
  07/31 Personal Income 05:30 Jun 0.40% 0.40% 0.40% -  
                   
  07/31 Personal Spending 05:30 Jun 0.40% 0.40% 0.20% 0.50%  
                   
  07/31 PCE Deflator MoM 05:30 Jun 0.10% 0.10% 0.20% -  
                   
  07/31 PCE Deflator YoY 05:30 Jun 2.30% 2.20% 2.30% 2.20%  
                   
  07/31 PCE Core MoM 05:30 Jun 0.10% 0.10% 0.20% -  
                   
  07/31 PCE Core YoY 05:30 Jun 2.00% 1.90% 2.00% 1.90%  
                   
  07/31 Employment Cost Index 05:30 2Q 0.70% 0.60% 0.80% -  
                   
  07/31 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA 06:00 May 0.20% 0.20% 0.20% 0.16%  
                   
  07/31 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA 06:00 May 6.40% 6.51% 6.56% 6.69%  
                   
  08/01 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 27 Jul - -2.60% -0.20% -  
                   
  08/01 ADP Employment Change 05:15 Jul 186k 219k 177k 181k  
                   
  08/01 Markit US Manufacturing PMI 06:45 Jul F 55.50 55.30 55.50 -  
                   
  08/01 Construction Spending MoM 07:00 Jun 0.30% -1.10% 0.40% 1.30%  
                   
  08/01 ISM Manufacturing 07:00 Jul 59.40 58.10 60.20 -  
                   
  08/01 ISM Prices Paid 07:00 Jul 75.30 73.20 76.80 -  
                   
  08/01 FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) 11:00 1 Aug 2.00% - 2.00% -  
                   
  08/01 FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) 11:00 1 Aug 1.75% - 1.75% -  
                   
  08/02 Challenger Job Cuts YoY 04:30 Jul - - 19.60% -  
                   
  08/02 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 28 Jul 220k - 217k -  
                   
  08/02 Continuing Claims 05:30 21 Jul 1750k - 1745k -  
                   
  08/02 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 29 Jul - - 59.00 -  
                   
  08/02 Factory Orders 07:00 Jun 0.70% - 0.40% -  
                   
  08/02 Durable Goods Orders 07:00 Jun F - - 1.00% -  
                   
  08/02 Durables Ex Transportation 07:00 Jun F - - 0.40% -  
                   
  08/03 Trade Balance 05:30 Jun -$46.50b - -$43.10b -  
                   
  08/03 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls 05:30 Jul 190k - 213k -  
                   
  08/03 Unemployment Rate 05:30 Jul 3.90% - 4.00% -  
                   
  08/03 Average Hourly Earnings MoM 05:30 Jul 0.30% - 0.20% -  
                   
  08/03 Average Hourly Earnings YoY 05:30 Jul 2.70% - 2.70% -  
                   
  08/03 Labor Force Participation Rate 05:30 Jul - - 62.90% -  
                   
  08/03 Markit US Services PMI 06:45 Jul F 56.20 - 56.20 -  
                   
  08/03 Markit US Composite PMI 06:45 Jul F - - 55.90 -  
                   
 
 
 
 
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