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Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   98-31 (+02)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   98-29.5 (+01)  
 
  Support   3.111%  
 
  Resistance   2.813%  
 
 
 
 
Thursday, August 02, 2018
 
 
Treasuries opened up higher this morning with 10-Year treasury yield at 2.9971; decreased 1.12 bps from prior closing of 3.0083, marking the largest fall in almost two weeks. The US dollar also climbed along with the treasuries this morning.

Yesterday's FOMC rate decision to maintain the current target range left both bond and stock markets almost unchanged. With its strong confidence on the US economy and their hawkish stance on gradual rate hikes, the next FOMC meeting on the 25th through 26th of September is very much anticipated. After digesting the Fed's decision, the focus again shifted back to the talks on higher US tariffs on Chinese goods overnight which triggered sharp declines in Asian stocks.

Initial Jobless Claims today came in short at 218k from the survey of 220k, only a 1k increase from the prior data which is very much in tune with the sentiments in recent reports. Continuing claims, on the other hand, fell to 1724k from 1747k prior revised vs. 1750k consensus. Factory Orders came in line with the survey at 0.70% vs. 0.40% prior, and Durable Goods Orders printed 0.80% vs. 1.00%. NonFarm Payroll number is scheduled to be released tomorrow.

The curve has bull-steepened with UST 10-Year yield down 1.12 bps.
 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  07/30 Pending Home Sales MoM 07:00 Jun 0.10% 0.90% -0.50% -  
                   
  07/30 Pending Home Sales NSA YoY 07:00 Jun - -4.00% -2.80% -  
                   
  07/30 Dallas Fed Manf. Activity 07:30 Jul 31.00 32.30 36.50 -  
                   
  07/31 Personal Income 05:30 Jun 0.40% 0.40% 0.40% -  
                   
  07/31 Personal Spending 05:30 Jun 0.40% 0.40% 0.20% 0.50%  
                   
  07/31 PCE Deflator MoM 05:30 Jun 0.10% 0.10% 0.20% -  
                   
  07/31 PCE Deflator YoY 05:30 Jun 2.30% 2.20% 2.30% 2.20%  
                   
  07/31 PCE Core MoM 05:30 Jun 0.10% 0.10% 0.20% -  
                   
  07/31 PCE Core YoY 05:30 Jun 2.00% 1.90% 2.00% 1.90%  
                   
  07/31 Employment Cost Index 05:30 2Q 0.70% 0.60% 0.80% -  
                   
  07/31 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA 06:00 May 0.20% 0.20% 0.20% 0.16%  
                   
  07/31 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA 06:00 May 6.40% 6.51% 6.56% 6.69%  
                   
  08/01 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 27 Jul - -2.60% -0.20% -  
                   
  08/01 ADP Employment Change 05:15 Jul 186k 219k 177k 181k  
                   
  08/01 Markit US Manufacturing PMI 06:45 Jul F 55.50 55.30 55.50 -  
                   
  08/01 Construction Spending MoM 07:00 Jun 0.30% -1.10% 0.40% 1.30%  
                   
  08/01 ISM Manufacturing 07:00 Jul 59.40 58.10 60.20 -  
                   
  08/01 ISM Prices Paid 07:00 Jul 75.30 73.20 76.80 -  
                   
  08/01 FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) 11:00 1 Aug 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% -  
                   
  08/01 FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) 11:00 1 Aug 1.75% 1.75% 1.75% -  
                   
  08/02 Challenger Job Cuts YoY 04:30 Jul - -4.20% 19.60% -  
                   
  08/02 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 28 Jul 220k 218k 217k -  
                   
  08/02 Continuing Claims 05:30 21 Jul 1750k 1724k 1745k 1747k  
                   
  08/02 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 29 Jul - 58.60 59.00 -  
                   
  08/02 Factory Orders 07:00 Jun 0.70% 0.70% 0.40% -  
                   
  08/02 Durable Goods Orders 07:00 Jun F - 0.80% 1.00% -  
                   
  08/02 Durables Ex Transportation 07:00 Jun F - 0.20% 0.40% -  
                   
  08/03 Trade Balance 05:30 Jun -$46.50b - -$43.10b -  
                   
  08/03 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls 05:30 Jul 193k - 213k -  
                   
  08/03 Unemployment Rate 05:30 Jul 3.90% - 4.00% -  
                   
  08/03 Average Hourly Earnings MoM 05:30 Jul 0.30% - 0.20% -  
                   
  08/03 Average Hourly Earnings YoY 05:30 Jul 2.70% - 2.70% -  
                   
  08/03 Labor Force Participation Rate 05:30 Jul - - 62.90% -  
                   
  08/03 Markit US Services PMI 06:45 Jul F 56.20 - 56.20 -  
                   
  08/03 Markit US Composite PMI 06:45 Jul F - - 55.90 -  
                   
 
 
 
 
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