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Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   99-08 (+06)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   99-04 (+04.5)  
 
  Support   3.111%  
 
  Resistance   2.825%  
 
 
 
 
Friday, August 03, 2018
 
 
Market opened today's session with treasuries slightly rallying across all maturities. 10-Year treasury is yield at 2.9636, 2.42 bps decreased from prior closing of 2.9878.  

China announced a list of $60 Billion worth of US imports they plan to apply tariffs on after the threat came from the Trump administration considering imposing a 25 percent tax on $200 Billion worth of Chinese imported goods. Despite the recent positive earnings reports and solid labor market data today, overshadowed by the trade threats between the two largest economies, stock market is remaining flat this morning. Today's labor market data showed US hiring cooled in July but there was a significant upward revision in prior from which many perceived as a steady labor market and it was not enough to discourage the Fed's hawkish stance.

The June trade balance widened to -$46.30 Billion from the prior revised of -$43.20 Billion although it still came in shy of -$46.50 Billion survey. The change in Nonfarm Payrolls printed a slightly disappointing number at 157k vs. 193k forecast and an upwardly revised prior of 248k. However, wages were still steady with both Average Hourly Earnings MoM and YoY coming in line with surveys at 0.30% and 2.70%, respectively. Unemployment rate ticked down to 3.90% as forecasted from 4.00% prior, and Underemployment also decreased to 7.50% from 7.80% prior.

The curve has bull-flattened with UST 10-Year yield down 2.42 bps.

Have A Nice Weekend!
 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  07/30 Pending Home Sales MoM 07:00 Jun 0.10% 0.90% -0.50% -  
                   
  07/30 Pending Home Sales NSA YoY 07:00 Jun - -4.00% -2.80% -  
                   
  07/30 Dallas Fed Manf. Activity 07:30 Jul 31.00 32.30 36.50 -  
                   
  07/31 Personal Income 05:30 Jun 0.40% 0.40% 0.40% -  
                   
  07/31 Personal Spending 05:30 Jun 0.40% 0.40% 0.20% 0.50%  
                   
  07/31 PCE Deflator MoM 05:30 Jun 0.10% 0.10% 0.20% -  
                   
  07/31 PCE Deflator YoY 05:30 Jun 2.30% 2.20% 2.30% 2.20%  
                   
  07/31 PCE Core MoM 05:30 Jun 0.10% 0.10% 0.20% -  
                   
  07/31 PCE Core YoY 05:30 Jun 2.00% 1.90% 2.00% 1.90%  
                   
  07/31 Employment Cost Index 05:30 2Q 0.70% 0.60% 0.80% -  
                   
  07/31 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA 06:00 May 0.20% 0.20% 0.20% 0.16%  
                   
  07/31 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA 06:00 May 6.40% 6.51% 6.56% 6.69%  
                   
  08/01 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 27 Jul - -2.60% -0.20% -  
                   
  08/01 ADP Employment Change 05:15 Jul 186k 219k 177k 181k  
                   
  08/01 Markit US Manufacturing PMI 06:45 Jul F 55.50 55.30 55.50 -  
                   
  08/01 Construction Spending MoM 07:00 Jun 0.30% -1.10% 0.40% 1.30%  
                   
  08/01 ISM Manufacturing 07:00 Jul 59.40 58.10 60.20 -  
                   
  08/01 ISM Prices Paid 07:00 Jul 75.30 73.20 76.80 -  
                   
  08/01 FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) 11:00 1 Aug 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% -  
                   
  08/01 FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) 11:00 1 Aug 1.75% 1.75% 1.75% -  
                   
  08/02 Challenger Job Cuts YoY 04:30 Jul - -4.20% 19.60% -  
                   
  08/02 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 28 Jul 220k 218k 217k -  
                   
  08/02 Continuing Claims 05:30 21 Jul 1750k 1724k 1745k 1747k  
                   
  08/02 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 29 Jul - 58.60 59.00 -  
                   
  08/02 Factory Orders 07:00 Jun 0.70% 0.70% 0.40% -  
                   
  08/02 Durable Goods Orders 07:00 Jun F - 0.80% 1.00% -  
                   
  08/02 Durables Ex Transportation 07:00 Jun F - 0.20% 0.40% -  
                   
  08/03 Trade Balance 05:30 Jun -$46.50b -$46.30b -$43.10b -$43.20b  
                   
  08/03 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls 05:30 Jul 193k 157k 213k 248k  
                   
  08/03 Unemployment Rate 05:30 Jul 3.90% 3.90% 4.00% -  
                   
  08/03 Average Hourly Earnings MoM 05:30 Jul 0.30% 0.30% 0.20% 0.10%  
                   
  08/03 Average Hourly Earnings YoY 05:30 Jul 2.70% 2.70% 2.70% -  
                   
  08/03 Labor Force Participation Rate 05:30 Jul - 62.90% 62.90% -  
                   
  08/03 Markit US Services PMI 06:45 Jul F 56.20 56.00 56.20 -  
                   
  08/03 Markit US Composite PMI 06:45 Jul F - 55.70 55.90 -  
                   
 
 
 
 
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