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Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   100-28.5 (-15)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   103-02.5 (-06)  
 
  Support   2.334%  
 
  Resistance   2.218%  
 
 
 
 
Friday, August 4, 2017
 
 
Treasuries fell across the curve this morning after the release of better than expected jobs report for July. The UST 10-Year yield is currently at 2.269% after closing at 2.222% prior.

The July employment report came in above expectations across the board as Nonfarm Payrolls showed an increase of 209k versus an estimated increase in jobs of 180k per consensus; June's data was also revised higher from 222k to 231k. Private Payrolls gained 25k more than expected at 205k versus 180k per consensus, and Manufacturing Payrolls increased by 16k versus an expected 5k gain per consensus. The Unemployment Rate was little changed at 4.30% as expected, which dropped from 4.40% in June. Employment increased in food services and drinking places, professional and business services, and health care.

After the recent disappointing earnings data, July's solid labor report showed some stability that could boost the confidence for the hawks of the Committee to continue the path for monetary policy tightening. Average Hourly Earnings grew 0.30% MoM as expected, up from June's 0.20% gain, and Average Hourly Earnings YoY remained steady at 2.50%, which was better than the expected 2.40% gain per consensus.

The curve has bear-steepened with the UST 10-Year up 4.7 bps from prior closing.

Have A Lovely Weekend!
 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  07/31 Pending Home Sales MoM 07:00 Jun 1.00% 1.50% -0.80% -0.70%  
                   
  07/31 Pending Home Sales NSA YoY 07:00 Jun - 0.70% 0.50% 0.70%  
                   
  07/31 Dallas Fed Manf. Activity 07:30 Jul 13.00 16.80 15.00 -  
                   
  08/01 Personal Income 05:30 Jun 0.40% 0.00% 0.40% 0.30%  
                   
  08/01 Personal Spending 05:30 Jun 0.10% 0.10% 0.10% 0.20%  
                   
  08/01 PCE Deflator MoM 05:30 Jun 0.00% 0.00% -0.10% 0.00%  
                   
  08/01 PCE Deflator YoY 05:30 Jun 1.30% 1.40% 1.40% 1.50%  
                   
  08/01 PCE Core MoM 05:30 Jun 0.10% 0.10% 0.10% -  
                   
  08/01 PCE Core YoY 05:30 Jun 1.40% 1.50% 1.40% 1.50%  
                   
  08/01 Markit US Manufacturing PMI 06:45 Jul F 53.20 53.30 53.20 -  
                   
  08/01 ISM Manufacturing 07:00 Jul 56.40 56.30 57.80 -  
                   
  08/01 ISM Prices Paid 07:00 Jul 55.80 62.00 55.00 -  
                   
  08/01 Construction Spending MoM 07:00 Jun 0.40% -1.30% 0.00% 0.30%  
                   
  08/02 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 28 Jul - -2.80% 0.40% -  
                   
  08/02 ADP Employment Change 05:15 Jul 190k 178k 158k 191k  
                   
  08/03 Challenger Job Cuts YoY 04:30 Jul - -37.60% -19.30% -  
                   
  08/03 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 29 Jul 243k 240k 244k 245k  
                   
  08/03 Continuing Claims 05:30 22 Jul 1958k 1968k 1964k 1965k  
                   
  08/03 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 30 Jul - 49.60 48.60 -  
                   
  08/03 Markit US Services PMI 06:45 Jul F 54.20 54.70 54.20 -  
                   
  08/03 Markit US Composite PMI 06:45 Jul F - 54.60 54.20 -  
                   
  08/03 Factory Orders 07:00 Jun 3.00% 3.00% -0.80% -0.30%  
                   
  08/03 Durable Goods Orders 07:00 Jun F 0.00% 6.40% 6.50% -  
                   
  08/03 Durables Ex Transportation 07:00 Jun F - 0.10% 0.20% -  
                   
  08/04 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls 05:30 Jul 180k 209k 222k 231k  
                   
  08/04 Unemployment Rate 05:30 Jul 4.30% 4.30% 4.40% -  
                   
  08/04 Average Hourly Earnings MoM 05:30 Jul 0.30% 0.30% 0.20% -  
                   
  08/04 Average Hourly Earnings YoY 05:30 Jul 2.40% 2.50% 2.50% -  
                   
  08/04 Labor Force Participation Rate 05:30 Jul - 62.90% 62.80% -  
                   
  08/04 Underemployment Rate 05:30 Jul - 8.60% 8.60% -  
                   
  08/04 Trade Balance 05:30 Jun -$44.50b -$43.60b -$46.50b -$46.40b  
                   
 
 
 
 
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