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Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   99-14.5 (+17.5)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   102-19.5 (+01.5)  
 
  Support   3.237%  
 
  Resistance   1.610%  
 
 
 
 
Monday, August 12, 2019
 
 
Treasury Yields Reach New Lows on Trade Concerns
 
 
Market opened today’s session with treasuries rallying across all maturities. 10-Year Treasury yield is at 1.6795, 6.52 bps decreased from prior closing of 1.7447.

US Stocks fell and Treasuries rose on the escalating trade tensions and political unrest in Hong Kong. Many analysts revised their forecasts of their fourth quarter growth lower and raised chance of an economic recession as the prospect of a trade deal has become dimmer. China’s central bank set its daily midpoint for yuan at 7.0211 per dollar, signaling its determination to manage an orderly depreciation. The overnight session turned sour and losses accelerated in early trading after authorities closed Hong Kong International Airport, canceling all departures for the remainder of the day. The fragile mood continued to reverberate through markets with gains in the safe haven showing traders have increased their bets for easier monetary policy. In corporate news, many companies that are scheduled to release their quarterly results this week include Alibaba, Cisco, Walmart, Nvidia, and Prudential. Elsewhere, WTI crude edged higher this morning, trading above $55 a barrel. Later today, Monthly Budget Statement in July will be released at 11:00 AM (PT), and the US Treasury is scheduled to auction off $42 billion of 3-month bills and $42 billion of 6-month bills at 8:30 AM (PT).

The curve has bull-flattened with UST 10-Year yield down 6.52 bps.
 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  08/12 Monthly Budget Statement 11:00 Jul -$120.00b - -$76.90b -  
                   
  08/13 NFIB Small Business Optimism 03:00 Jul 104.00 - 103.30 -  
                   
  08/13 CPI MoM 05:30 Jul 0.30% - 0.10% -  
                   
  08/13 CPI YoY 05:30 Jul 1.70% - 1.60% -  
                   
  08/14 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 9 Aug - - 5.30% -  
                   
  08/14 Import Price Index MoM 05:30 Jul -0.10% - -0.90% -  
                   
  08/14 Import Price Index YoY 05:30 Jul -2.00% - -2.00% -  
                   
  08/14 Export Price Index MoM 05:30 Jul -0.10% - -0.70% -  
                   
  08/14 Export Price Index YoY 05:30 Jul - - -1.60% -  
                   
  08/15 Empire Manufacturing 05:30 Aug 2.00 - 4.30 -  
                   
  08/15 Nonfarm Productivity 05:30 2Q P 1.40% - 3.40% -  
                   
  08/15 Unit Labor Costs 05:30 2Q P 1.90% - -1.60% -  
                   
  08/15 Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook 05:30 Aug 9.50 - 21.80 -  
                   
  08/15 Retail Sales Advance MoM 05:30 Jul 0.30% - 0.40% -  
                   
  08/15 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 10 Aug 213k - 209k -  
                   
  08/15 Continuing Claims 05:30 3 Aug 1685k - 1684k -  
                   
  08/15 Industrial Production MoM 06:15 Jul 0.10% - 0.00% -  
                   
  08/15 Capacity Utilization 06:15 Jul 77.80% - 77.90% -  
                   
  08/15 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 11 Aug - - 62.90 -  
                   
  08/15 NAHB Housing Market Index 07:00 Aug 65.00 - 65.00 -  
                   
  08/15 Net Long-term TIC Flows 13:00 Jun - - $3.50b -  
                   
  08/15 Total Net TIC Flows 13:00 Jun - - $32.90b -  
                   
  08/16 Housing Starts 05:30 Jul 1255k - 1253k -  
                   
  08/16 Housing Starts MoM 05:30 Jul 0.20% - -0.90% -  
                   
  08/16 Building Permits 05:30 Jul 1270k - 1220k 1232k  
                   
  08/16 Building Permits MoM 05:30 Jul 3.10% - -6.10% -5.20%  
                   
  08/16 U. of MichSentiment 07:00 Aug P 97.00 - 98.40 -
                   
 
 
 
 
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