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Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   99-29 (-02.5)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   99-09 (-01.5)  
 
  Support   3.111%  
 
  Resistance   2.813%  
 
 
 
 
Tuesday, August 14, 2018
 
 
Treasuries are little unchanged across the curve this morning from yesterday’s close. The UST 10-Year yield is currently at 2.881% after closing at 2.880% prior.

Treasuries declined overnight as risk sentiment returned after Turkish lira stabilized to push U.S. stock futures higher. The dollar fell lower with treasuries from its highest level seen in fourteen months as global markets steadied with Turkish assets. Treasuries have pared most of its losses since the start of today's session. On the economic calendar, we received the July NFIB Small Business Optimism which rose to its second highest level at 107.90 following its previous mark of 107.20 prior. The small business confidence was expected to drop back to 106.80 per survey, but nearly every component of the report reflected an improvement.

We also received the July Import Price Index which was unchanged at 0.00% month-over-month following a revised 0.10% decline in June. The Import Price Index YoY is now up to 4.80% versus an upwardly revised 4.70% prior. Import Price Index excluding petroleum fell 0.10% in July following a downwardly revised 0.40% decline in June. Lastly, we received the July Export Price Index which dropped 0.50% month-over-month following a revised 0.20% gain in June; Export Price Index YoY is now at 4.30% versus 5.30% prior.

The curve has bear-flattened with the UST 10-Year yield up 0.1 bp from prior closing.
 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  08/13 No Data - - - - - -  
                   
  08/14 NFIB Small Business Optimism 03:00 Jul 106.80 107.90 107.20 -  
                   
  08/14 Import Price Index MoM 05:30 Jul 0.00% 0.00% -0.40% -0.10%  
                   
  08/14 Import Price Index YoY 05:30 Jul 4.50% 4.80% 4.30% 4.70%  
                   
  08/14 Export Price Index MoM 05:30 Jul 0.20% -0.50% 0.30% 0.20%  
                   
  08/14 Export Price Index YoY 05:30 Jul - 4.30% 5.30% -  
                   
  08/15 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 10 Aug - - -3.00% -  
                   
  08/15 Nonfarm Productivity 05:30 2Q P 2.40% - 0.40% -  
                   
  08/15 Empire Manufacturing 05:30 Aug 20.00 - 22.60 -  
                   
  08/15 Retail Sales Advance MoM 05:30 Jul 0.10% - 0.50% -  
                   
  08/15 Unit Labor Costs 05:30 2Q P 0.00% - 2.90% -  
                   
  08/15 Industrial Production MoM 06:15 Jul 0.30% - 0.60% -  
                   
  08/15 Capacity Utilization 06:15 Jul 78.20% - 78.00% -  
                   
  08/15 Business Inventories 07:00 Jun 0.10% - 0.40% -  
                   
  08/15 NAHB Housing Market Index 07:00 Aug 67.00 - 68.00 -  
                   
  08/15 Total Net TIC Flows 13:00 Jun - - $69.90b -  
                   
  08/15 Net Long-term TIC Flows 13:00 Jun - - $45.60b -  
                   
  08/16 Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook 05:30 Aug 22.00 - 25.70 -  
                   
  08/16 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 11 Aug 215k - 213k -  
                   
  08/16 Continuing Claims 05:30 4 Aug 1741k - 1755k -  
                   
  08/16 Housing Starts 05:30 Jul 1260k - 1173k -  
                   
  08/16 Housing Starts MoM 05:30 Jul 7.40% - -12.30% -  
                   
  08/16 Building Permits 05:30 Jul 1310k - 1273k 1292k  
                   
  08/16 Building Permits MoM 05:30 Jul 1.40% - -2.20% -0.70%  
                   
  08/16 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 12 Aug - - 59.30 -  
                   
  08/17 Leading Index 07:00 Jul 0.40% - 0.50% -  
                   
  08/17 U. of Mich. Sentiment 07:00 Aug P 98.00 - 97.90 -  
                   
 
 
 
 
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