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Market Commentary


Today's Market Commentary
Friday
August 15, 2013
10-YEAR NOTES   97-15.5 (-18.5) 2.79%
FN 3.5% COUPON   99-15 (-20)
SUPPORT   2.85%
RESISTANCE   2.40%
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Initial Jobless Claims came in at 320k vs 335k expected and Continuing Claims dropped to 2969k (3000k expected). Empire Manufacturing came in at 8.24, lower than the 10.0 expected. On the inflation front, CPI MoM and YoY came in at expectation (0.2% and 2.0%, respectively). Core CPI was 0.2%MoM and 1.7% YoY. At 10:00 AM EST NAHB Housing Market Index (57 expected) and Philly Fed (15 expected) will be released.

Overnight, stock markets were lower and better than expected data out of Europe led a small sell-off. In the U.S., the market was unchanged until early in the morning as it began selling off in concert with Bunds. After the economic release the market shot through weak support (2.75%) and made a charge to 2.80% before rallying back a few bps. As the market gets closer to September and the number of important data releases dwindles, things like Jobless Claims become more important asmarket participants attempt to figure out when the Fed will taper. Given that claims came in lower than expected and inflation came in at expectations, the market is expecting a September taper and the curve is bear steepening in response.

At 11:00 AM EST there is a UST buyback in the 5/19-8/20 sector.

 
 
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