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Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   100-06.5 (+13.5)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   99-13 (+06.5)  
 
  Support   3.111%  
 
  Resistance   2.813%  
 
 
 
 
Wednesday, August 15, 2018
 
 
Treasuries are higher across the curve this morning from yesterday’s close. The UST 10-Year yield is currently at 2.856% after closing at 2.899% prior.

Treasuries rallied overnight and into open after Chinese tech giant Tencent Holdings reported an unexpected decline in quarterly profit. U.S. stocks dropped with global equities as the disappointing earnings rattled emerging-market equities in Tencent’s first profit drop in over a decade. On the economic calendar, we received the Empire Manufacturing print for August which exceeded expectations at 25.60 versus 20.00 per consensus. The 2Q preliminary Nonfarm Productivity report jumped to 2.90% from a downwardly revised 0.30% gain prior, while Unit Labor Costs fell 0.90% after an upwardly revised 3.40% increase prior.

The July Retail Sales Advance rose more than expected at 0.50% versus 0.10% per survey, but June’s data was revised down to a 0.20% gain from 0.50% initially reported. Retail Sales excluding auto also came in higher than expected at 0.60% rise MoM, but June’s data was also revised down to a 0.20% gain after initially reporting a 0.40% increase. Moreover, Retail Sales excluding auto and gas rose 0.60% in July following a downwardly revised 0.20% gain prior. We also received the July Industrial Production report which rose just 0.10% MoM following a revised 1.00% increase prior. Lastly, Capacity Utilization remained unchanged at 78.10% from its previous revised mark.

The curve has bull-flattened with the UST 10-Year yield down 4.3 bps from prior closing.
 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  08/13 No Data - - - - - -  
                   
  08/14 NFIB Small Business Optimism 03:00 Jul 106.80 107.90 107.20 -  
                   
  08/14 Import Price Index MoM 05:30 Jul 0.00% 0.00% -0.40% -0.10%  
                   
  08/14 Import Price Index YoY 05:30 Jul 4.50% 4.80% 4.30% 4.70%  
                   
  08/14 Export Price Index MoM 05:30 Jul 0.20% -0.50% 0.30% 0.20%  
                   
  08/14 Export Price Index YoY 05:30 Jul - 4.30% 5.30% -  
                   
  08/15 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 10 Aug - -2.00% -3.00% -  
                   
  08/15 Nonfarm Productivity 05:30 2Q P 2.40% 2.90% 0.40% 0.30%  
                   
  08/15 Empire Manufacturing 05:30 Aug 20.00 25.60 22.60 -  
                   
  08/15 Retail Sales Advance MoM 05:30 Jul 0.10% 0.50% 0.50% 0.20%  
                   
  08/15 Unit Labor Costs 05:30 2Q P 0.00% -0.90% 2.90% 3.40%  
                   
  08/15 Industrial Production MoM 06:15 Jul 0.30% 0.10% 0.60% 1.00%  
                   
  08/15 Capacity Utilization 06:15 Jul 78.20% 78.10% 78.00% 78.10%  
                   
  08/15 Business Inventories 07:00 Jun 0.10% 0.10% 0.40% 0.30%  
                   
  08/15 NAHB Housing Market Index 07:00 Aug 67.00 67.00 68.00 -  
                   
  08/15 Total Net TIC Flows 13:00 Jun - - $69.90b -  
                   
  08/15 Net Long-term TIC Flows 13:00 Jun - - $45.60b -  
                   
  08/16 Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook 05:30 Aug 22.00 - 25.70 -  
                   
  08/16 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 11 Aug 215k - 213k -  
                   
  08/16 Continuing Claims 05:30 4 Aug 1740k - 1755k -  
                   
  08/16 Housing Starts 05:30 Jul 1260k - 1173k -  
                   
  08/16 Housing Starts MoM 05:30 Jul 7.40% - -12.30% -  
                   
  08/16 Building Permits 05:30 Jul 1310k - 1273k 1292k  
                   
  08/16 Building Permits MoM 05:30 Jul 1.40% - -2.20% -0.70%  
                   
  08/16 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 12 Aug - - 59.30 -  
                   
  08/17 Leading Index 07:00 Jul 0.40% - 0.50% -  
                   
  08/17 U. of Mich. Sentiment 07:00 Aug P 98.00 - 97.90 -  
       
 
 
 
 
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