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Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   100-02 (-01)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   99-12 (00)  
 
  Support   3.111%  
 
  Resistance   2.813%  
 
 
 
 
Thursday, August 16, 2018
 
 
Treasuries are slightly lower across the curve this morning from yesterday's close. The UST 10-Year yield is currently at 2.867% after closing at 2.863% prior.

Treasuries fell overnight as global-trade tensions eased on news that U.S. and China will resume trade discussions later this month. U.S. Stocks gained on the trade news while the dollar fell with treasuries. On the economic calendar, we received the Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook which disappointed expectations after scaling back down to 11.90 in August from 25.70 prior; consensus called for the index to show a slight drop to 22.00. Treasuries have pared most of its overnight losses since the opening of today's session.

We also received the July Housing Starts which rose 0.90% MoM to 1168k unit rate following a revised 12.90% decline prior. Building Permits rose 1.50% MoM to 1311k unit rate after a revised drop of 0.70% in June. Also on the calendar, we received the Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended August 11 which fell 2k to 212k from a revised 214k prior. Continuing Claims for the week ended August 4 fell 39k to 1721k from upwardly revised 1760k prior. Lastly, the August Bloomberg Economic Expectations came in at 57.00 following its prior mark of 53.50 in July.

The curve has bear-flattened with the UST 10-Year yield up 0.4 bp from prior closing.
 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  08/13 No Data - - - - - -  
                   
  08/14 NFIB Small Business Optimism 03:00 Jul 106.80 107.90 107.20 -  
                   
  08/14 Import Price Index MoM 05:30 Jul 0.00% 0.00% -0.40% -0.10%  
                   
  08/14 Import Price Index YoY 05:30 Jul 4.50% 4.80% 4.30% 4.70%  
                   
  08/14 Export Price Index MoM 05:30 Jul 0.20% -0.50% 0.30% 0.20%  
                   
  08/14 Export Price Index YoY 05:30 Jul - 4.30% 5.30% -  
                   
  08/15 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 10 Aug - -2.00% -3.00% -  
                   
  08/15 Nonfarm Productivity 05:30 2Q P 2.40% 2.90% 0.40% 0.30%  
                   
  08/15 Empire Manufacturing 05:30 Aug 20.00 25.60 22.60 -  
                   
  08/15 Retail Sales Advance MoM 05:30 Jul 0.10% 0.50% 0.50% 0.20%  
                   
  08/15 Unit Labor Costs 05:30 2Q P 0.00% -0.90% 2.90% 3.40%  
                   
  08/15 Industrial Production MoM 06:15 Jul 0.30% 0.10% 0.60% 1.00%  
                   
  08/15 Capacity Utilization 06:15 Jul 78.20% 78.10% 78.00% 78.10%  
                   
  08/15 Business Inventories 07:00 Jun 0.10% 0.10% 0.40% 0.30%  
                   
  08/15 NAHB Housing Market Index 07:00 Aug 67.00 67.00 68.00 -  
                   
  08/15 Total Net TIC Flows 13:00 Jun - $114.50b $69.90b $69.20b  
                   
  08/15 Net Long-term TIC Flows 13:00 Jun - -$36.50b $45.60b $45.50b  
                   
  08/16 Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook 05:30 Aug 22.00 11.90 25.70 -  
                   
  08/16 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 11 Aug 215k 212k 213k 214k  
                   
  08/16 Continuing Claims 05:30 4 Aug 1738k 1721k 1755k 1760k  
                   
  08/16 Housing Starts 05:30 Jul 1264k 1168k 1173k 1158k  
                   
  08/16 Housing Starts MoM 05:30 Jul 7.40% 0.90% -12.30% -12.90%  
                   
  08/16 Building Permits 05:30 Jul 1310k 1311k 1273k 1292k  
                   
  08/16 Building Permits MoM 05:30 Jul 1.40% 1.50% -2.20% -0.70%  
                   
  08/16 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 12 Aug - 58.90 59.30 -  
                   
  08/17 Leading Index 07:00 Jul 0.40% - 0.50% -  
                   
  08/17 U. of Mich. Sentiment 07:00 Aug P 98.00 - 97.90 -  
                   
 
 
 
 
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