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Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   100-19.5 (-17)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   102-21 (-04)  
 
  Support   3.237%  
 
  Resistance   1.492%  
 
 
 
 
Friday, August 16, 2019
 
 
Treasury Yields Edge Higher as Stocks Rebound
 
 
Market opened today’s session with treasuries nudging lower across all maturities. 10-Year Treasury yield is at 1.5454, 1.85 bps increased from prior closing of 1.5269.

US equity futures pointed to a higher open this morning, rebounding from the recent sell-off as a tumultuous week of uncertainty wraps up. Nvidia Corp rose in premarket after quarterly sales and profit topped estimates and Deere & Co slipped after cutting its guidance. Despite of the gain in early morning today, stocks are heading for a third straight weekly loss. With expectation of more rate cuts looming among market participants, Fed Chair Powell may shed some light on how he views the path of interest rates at the annual central bankers retreat in Jackson Hole, Wyoming on August 23rd. The trade war still remains as the primary driver of markets and President Trump told reporters yesterday that the US and China are having very productive talks by phone. Elsewhere, oil pared some of its gains after OPEC said markets face a “somewhat bearish” outlook for the rest of the year.

Housing Starts in July slipped to 1191k from a downwardly revised prior of 1241k vs. 1256k consensus. However, single family starts rose for the second month in a row and permits also increased for a third straight month, painting a better outlook for the housing sector, especially with mortgage rates reaching the lows of recent years. Building Permits printed 1336k vs. 1270k consensus, following an upwardly revised prior of 1232k. Lastly, University of Michigan Sentiment lowered to 92.10 from 98.40 prior vs. 97.00 consensus.

The curve has bear-steepened with UST 10-Year yield up 1.85 bps.
 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  08/12 Monthly Budget Statement 11:00 Jul -$120.00b - -$76.90b -  
                   
  08/13 NFIB Small Business Optimism 03:00 Jul 104.00 104.70 103.30 -  
                   
  08/13 CPI MoM 05:30 Jul 0.30% 0.30% 0.10% -  
                   
  08/13 CPI YoY 05:30 Jul 1.70% 1.80% 1.60% -  
                   
  08/14 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 9 Aug - 21.70% 5.30% -  
                   
  08/14 Import Price Index MoM 05:30 Jul -0.10% 0.20% -0.90% -1.10%  
                   
  08/14 Import Price Index YoY 05:30 Jul -2.00% -1.80% -2.00% -  
                   
  08/14 Export Price Index MoM 05:30 Jul -0.10% 0.20% -0.70% -0.60%  
                   
  08/14 Export Price Index YoY 05:30 Jul - -0.90% -1.60% -  
                   
  08/15 Empire Manufacturing 05:30 Aug 2.00 4.80 4.30 -  
                   
  08/15 Nonfarm Productivity 05:30 2Q P 1.40% 2.30% 3.40% 3.50%  
                   
  08/15 Unit Labor Costs 05:30 2Q P 2.00% 2.40% -1.60% 5.50%  
                   
  08/15 Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook 05:30 Aug 9.50 16.80 21.80 -  
                   
  08/15 Retail Sales Advance MoM 05:30 Jul 0.30% 0.70% 0.40% 0.30%  
                   
  08/15 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 10 Aug 212k 220k 209k 211k  
                   
  08/15 Continuing Claims 05:30 3 Aug 1685k 1726k 1684k 1687k  
                   
  08/15 Industrial Production MoM 06:15 Jul 0.10% -0.20% 0.00% 0.20%  
                   
  08/15 Capacity Utilization 06:15 Jul 77.80% 77.50% 77.90% 77.80%  
                   
  08/15 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 11 Aug - 61.20 62.90 -  
                   
  08/15 NAHB Housing Market Index 07:00 Aug 65.00 66.00 65.00 -  
                   
  08/15 Net Long-term TIC Flows 13:00 Jun - - $3.50b -  
                   
  08/15 Total Net TIC Flows 13:00 Jun - - $32.90b -  
                   
  08/16 Housing Starts 05:30 Jul 1256k 1191k 1253k 1241k  
                   
  08/16 Housing Starts MoM 05:30 Jul 0.20% -4.00% -0.90% -1.80%  
                   
  08/16 Building Permits 05:30 Jul 1270k 1336k 1220k 1232k  
                   
  08/16 Building Permits MoM 05:30 Jul 3.10% 8.40% -6.10% -5.20%  
                   
  08/16 U. of MichSentiment 07:00 Aug P 97.00 92.10 98.40 -
                   
 
 
 
 
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  This information is provided solely for informational use and is not intended as an advice for trading or investment purposes in any manner whatsoever. Sun West Mortgage Company, Inc. is not a licensed or registered broker or dealer and cannot provide investment strategies or recommendations. This information is provided to licensed brokers/lenders only and may not be copied or distributed to customers or potential customers. All loans are subject to approval. Certain restrictions may apply. Listed pricing is a morning indication only. Program rates, prices, guidelines, fees, costs, terms and conditions are subject to change without notice.  
 
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