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Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   100-11 (+04)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   103-08.5 (+01.5)  
 
  Support   2.283%  
 
  Resistance   2.184%  
 
 
 
 
Thursday, August 17, 2017
 
 
Treasuries are slightly lower across the curve this morning from yesterday's close.? The UST 10-Year yield is currently at 2.236% after closing at 2.223% prior.

Yesterday the market rallied upon the release of a rather dovish FOMC Minutes from the Fed's latest meeting in July. There seemed to have been a lack of commitment from the Feds about the timing of both the balance sheet normalization and future rate hikes due to the lack of confidence current labor conditions and recent inflation data. The timing of the Fed's implementation on the balance sheet normalization is still unclear, but stated that it would occur “relatively soon”, signaling to a possible announcement in their meeting next month.

This morning we received the Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending on August 12th which fell 12k to 232k from 244k the week prior. Continuing Claims for the week ending on August 5 fell 3k to 1953k from an upwardly revised 1956k the week prior. The August Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Index came in above expectations at 18.90 versus 18.00 per consensus. We also received the Industrial Production data for July, which rose 0.20% following a 0.40% rise in June, while the Capacity Utilization data came in line with expectations at 76.70% which was unchanged from an upwardly revised 76.70% the month prior. Later today at 10:00 AM (PT), Dallas Fed President Kaplan will speak in Lubbock Chamber of Commerce which will include a Q&A with both the audience and the media.

The curve has bear-steepened with the UST 10-Year up 1.3 bps from prior closing.
 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  08/14 No Data - - - - - -  
                   
  08/15 Import Price Index MoM 05:30 Jul 0.10% 0.10% -0.20% -  
                   
  08/15 Import Price Index YoY 05:30 Jul 1.50% 1.50% 1.50% -  
                   
  08/15 Export Price Index MoM 05:30 Jul 0.20% 0.40% -0.20% -  
                   
  08/15 Export Price Index YoY 05:30 Jul - 0.80% 0.60% -  
                   
  08/15 Empire Manufacturing 05:30 Aug 10.00 25.20 9.80 -  
                   
  08/15 Retail Sales Advance MoM 05:30 Jul 0.30% 0.60% -0.20% 0.30%  
                   
  08/15 NAHB Housing Market Index 07:00 Aug 64.00 68.00 64.00 -  
                   
  08/15 Business Inventories 07:00 Jun 0.40% 0.50% 0.30% -  
                   
  08/15 Total Net TIC Flows 13:00 Jun - $7.70b $57.30b $54.70b  
                   
  08/15 Net Long-term TIC Flows 13:00 Jun - $34.40b $91.90b -  
                   
  08/16 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 11 Aug - 0.10% 3.00% -  
                   
  08/16 Housing Starts 05:30 Jul 1220k 1155k 1215k 1213k  
                   
  08/16 Housing Starts MoM 05:30 Jul 0.40% -4.80% 8.30% 7.40%  
                   
  08/16 Building Permits 05:30 Jul 1250k 1223k 1254k 1275k  
                   
  08/16 Building Permits MoM 05:30 Jul -2.00% -4.10% 7.40% 9.20%  
                   
  08/16 FOMC Meeting Minutes 11:00 26 Jul - - - -  
                   
  08/17 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 12 Aug 240k 232k 244k -  
                   
  08/17 Continuing Claims 05:30 5 Aug 1955k 1953k 1951k 1956k  
                   
  08/17 Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook 05:30 Aug 18.00 18.90 19.50 -  
                   
  08/17 Industrial Production MoM 05:51 Jul 0.30% 0.20% 0.40% -  
                   
  08/17 Capacity Utilization 05:51 Jul 76.70% 76.70% 76.60% 76.70%  
                   
  08/17 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 13 Aug - 52.10 51.40 -  
                   
  08/17 Leading Index 07:00 Jul 0.30% 0.30% 0.60% -  
                   
  08/18 U. of Mich. Sentiment 07:00 Aug P 94.00 - 93.40 -  
                   
 
 
 
 
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