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Market Commentary


 

 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   99-24.5 (+11)  
 
  FN 2.5% Coupon   105-04.5 (+01)  
 
  Support   1.942%  
 
  Resistance   0.505%  
 
 
 
 
  Thursday, August 20, 2020
 
 

Treasury Yields Lower as Unemployment Claims Increase

 
 
Market opened today’s session with treasuries rallying across all maturities. 10-Year Treasury yield is at 0.6428, 3.73 bps decreased from prior closing of 0.6801.

US Stocks opened lower this morning after weekly jobless data was reported more than forecast. Nividia Corp. erased pre-market losses after stronger than expected results, meanwhile rival Intel Corp. jumped after announcing a commitment to buy back $10 billion of shares. In global news, stocks fell in Europe and Asia after the Federal Reserve signaled continued concern over the pandemic weighing on the world's biggest economy. In Hong Kong, stocks fell for a second session after the US suspended its extradition treaty and ended reciprocal tax treatment with the former British colony. The dollar held most of Wednesday's surge while gold began reversing some of yesterday's tumble. With regard to the coronavirus, France, Spain and Austria reported the highest number of daily infections in months, even as cases subsided in a few populous US states. On the economic front, Initial Jobless claims failed to improve on expectations after increasing to 1.106 million for the week of August 15. While unemployment claims increased, Continuing Claims fell by 636 thousand to 14.8 million, providing a better outlook for the economy. This week's numbers fall at the beginning of the academic season, with childcare restrictions and school closures bringing the risk of putting as much as 18 million current job-seeking parents on hold. In other news, the Leading Index for the month of July beat expectations after reporting at 1.40%, still down from a prior monthly value of 3.00%. Reporting tomorrow are Markit US Manufacturing PMI and monthly Existing Home Sales, with expectations set at 52.00 and 5.40 million respectively.

The curve has bull-flattened with UST 10-Year yield down 3.73 bps.
 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  08/17 Empire Manufacturing 05:30 Aug 15.00 3.70 17.20 -  
                   
  08/17 Net Long-term TIC Flows 13:00 Jun $113.00B $127.00B $118.10B -  
                   
  08/17 Total Net TIC Flows 13:00 Jun -$67.90B -$4.50B -$15.90B -  
                   
  08/18 Housing Starts 05:30 Jul 1245k 1496k 1186k 1220k  
                   
  08/18 Housing Starts MoM 05:30 Jul 5.00% 22.60% 17.30% 17.50%  
                   
  08/18 Building Permits 05:30 Jul 1326k 1495k 1241k 1258k  
                   
  08/18 Building Permits MoM 05:30 Jul 5.40% 18.80% 2.10% 3.50%  
                   
  08/19 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 14 Aug - -3.30% 6.80% -  
                   
  08/20 Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook 05:30 Aug 20.80 17.20 24.10 -  
                   
  08/20 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 15 Aug 920k 1106k 963k 971k  
                   
  08/20 Continuing Claims 05:30 8 Aug 15000k 14844k 15486k 15480k  
                   
  08/20 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 16 Aug - 43.50 43.70 -  
                   
  08/20 Leading Index 07:00 Jul 1.10% 1.40% 2.00% 3.00%  
                   
  08/21 Markit US Services PMI 06:45 Aug P 51.00 - 50.00 -  
                   
  08/21 Markit US Composite PMI 06:45 Aug P - - 50.30 -  
                   
  08/21 Existing Home Sales 07:00 Jul 5.40m - 4.72m -  
                   
  08/21 Existing Home Sales MoM 07:00 Jul 14.40% - 20.70% -
                   
 
 
 
 
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  This information is provided solely for informational use and is not intended as an advice for trading or investment purposes in any manner whatsoever. Sun West Mortgage Company, Inc. is not a licensed or registered broker or dealer and cannot provide investment strategies or recommendations. This information is provided to licensed brokers/lenders only and may not be copied or distributed to customers or potential customers. All loans are subject to approval. Certain restrictions may apply. Listed pricing is a morning indication only. Program rates, prices, guidelines, fees, costs, terms and conditions are subject to change without notice.  
 
 
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