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Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   100-09 (-08)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   99-16.5 (-03.5)  
 
  Support   3.111%  
 
  Resistance   2.810%  
 
 
 
 
Monday, August 27, 2018
 
 
Treasuries are lower across the curve this morning from Friday's close. The UST 10-Year yield is currently at 2.841% after closing at 2.811% prior.

Treasuries lowered overnight and early into today's session while U.S. Stocks rallied on reports that a Nafta deal between the U.S. and Mexico could be completed as early as Monday. Last week, Fed Chairman reiterated that the Feds will continue to follow a path of gradual policy tightening in his statement at Jackson Hole. Also last week, U.S. and China met to discuss trade disputes that resulted in little to no progress in the ongoing trade war. Later today at 10:00 AM (PT), U.S. will sell $36 Billion of 2-Year Notes in the first of three Treasury auctions scheduled this week.

On the economic calendar, we received the July Chicago Fed National Activity Index which fell to 0.13 from an upwardly revised 0.48 prior. Consensus called for the index to read 0.45 but slower growth in production-related indicators moved the index lower than expected. Tomorrow we will receive the July Trade Balance, June S&P CoreLogic, and the July Wholesale and Retail Inventories reports. On Wednesday we will have the second estimates of 2Q GDP prints and the July Pending Home Sales. Then on Thursday, we will have the July Personal Income and Personal Spending. Finally on Friday, the August Chicago Purchasing Manager and the final reading of the August University of Michigan Sentiment will be available.

The curve has bear-steepened with the UST 10-Year yield up 3.0 bps from prior closing.
 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  08/27 Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index 05:30 Jul 0.45 0.13 0.43 0.48  
                   
  08/27 Dallas Fed Manf. Activity 07:30 Aug 30.00 30.90 32.30 -  
                   
  08/28 Wholesale Inventories MoM 05:30 Jul P 0.20% - 0.10% -  
                   
  08/28 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA 06:00 Jun 0.20% - 0.20% -  
                   
  08/28 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA 06:00 Jun 6.40% - 6.51% -  
                   
  08/28 Richmond Fed Manufact. Index 07:00 Aug 17.00 - 20.00 -  
                   
  08/29 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 24 Aug - - 4.20% -  
                   
  08/29 GDP Annualized QoQ 05:30 2Q S 4.00% - 4.10% -  
                   
  08/29 Personal Consumption 05:30 2Q S 3.90% - 4.00% -  
                   
  08/29 GDP Price Index 05:30 2Q S 3.00% - 3.00% -  
                   
  08/29 Core PCE QoQ 05:30 2Q S 2.00% - 2.00% -  
                   
  08/29 Pending Home Sales MoM 07:00 Jul 0.50% - 0.90% -  
                   
  08/29 Pending Home Sales NSA YoY 07:00 Jul -2.50% - -4.00% -  
                   
  08/30 PCE Core YoY 05:30 Jul 2.00% - 1.90% -  
                   
  08/30 Personal Income 05:30 Jul 0.40% - 0.40% -  
                   
  08/30 Personal Spending 05:30 Jul 0.40% - 0.40% -  
                   
  08/30 PCE Deflator MoM 05:30 Jul 0.10% - 0.10% -  
                   
  08/30 PCE Deflator YoY 05:30 Jul 2.30% - 2.20% -  
                   
  08/30 PCE Core MoM 05:30 Jul 0.20% - 0.10% -  
                   
  08/30 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 25 Aug 213K - 210K -  
                   
  08/30 Continuing Claims 05:30 18 Aug 1730K - 1727K -  
                   
  08/30 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 26 Aug - - 58.60 -  
                   
  08/31 U. of Mich. Sentiment 07:00 Aug F 95.50 - 95.30 -  
                   
 
 
 
 
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