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Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   100-0.5 (-07.5)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   99-13 (-03.5)  
 
  Support   3.111%  
 
  Resistance   2.810%  
 
 
 
 
Tuesday, August 28, 2018
 
 
Treasuries are modestly lower across the curve this morning from yesterday's close. The UST 10-Year yield is currently at 2.876% after closing at 2.847% prior.

Treasuries fell overnight as risk-on mode resumed while markets continued to digest the latest developments on global trade. Yesterday the U.S. and Mexico announced an accord on trade that pushed U.S. Stocks higher as investors moved toward riskier assets. It remains unclear where the new trade deal leaves Canada, although the U.S. continues to push for the Canadians to join the new deal soon and not risk being left out. Elsewhere, the U.S. will sell $37 billion of 5-Year Notes at 10:00 AM (PT) in the second of three Treasury auctions scheduled this week.

On the economic calendar, we received the July Advance Goods Trade Balance which showed that the deficit widened to $72.20 Billion from a downwardly revised $67.90 Billion deficit prior. We also received the July Wholesale Inventories which rose 0.70% following a 0.10% increase prior; Retail Inventories rose 0.40% after being unchanged at 0.00% prior. The June S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index rose 0.11% MoM following a revised 0.21% increase prior, bringing its YoY down to 6.31% from an upwardly revised 6.54% prior. Lastly, we received the August Conference Board Consumer Confidence which unexpectedly jumped to its highest level in 17 years at 133.40 following a revised 127.90 reading prior.

The curve has bear-steepened with the UST 10-Year yield up 2.9 bps from prior closing.
 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  08/27 Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index 05:30 Jul 0.45 0.13 0.43 0.48  
                   
  08/27 Dallas Fed Manf. Activity 07:30 Aug 30.00 30.90 32.30 -  
                   
  08/28 Wholesale Inventories MoM 05:30 Jul P 0.20% 0.70% 0.10% -  
                   
  08/28 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA 06:00 Jun 0.20% 0.11% 0.20% 0.21%  
                   
  08/28 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA 06:00 Jun 6.40% 6.31% 6.51% 6.54%  
                   
  08/28 Richmond Fed Manufact. Index 07:00 Aug 17.00 24.00 20.00 -  
                   
  08/29 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 24 Aug - - 4.20% -  
                   
  08/29 GDP Annualized QoQ 05:30 2Q S 4.00% - 4.10% -  
                   
  08/29 Personal Consumption 05:30 2Q S 3.90% - 4.00% -  
                   
  08/29 GDP Price Index 05:30 2Q S 3.00% - 3.00% -  
                   
  08/29 Core PCE QoQ 05:30 2Q S 2.00% - 2.00% -  
                   
  08/29 Pending Home Sales MoM 07:00 Jul 0.30% - 0.90% -  
                   
  08/29 Pending Home Sales NSA YoY 07:00 Jul -2.50% - -4.00% -  
                   
  08/30 PCE Core YoY 05:30 Jul 2.00% - 1.90% -  
                   
  08/30 Personal Income 05:30 Jul 0.40% - 0.40% -  
                   
  08/30 Personal Spending 05:30 Jul 0.40% - 0.40% -  
                   
  08/30 PCE Deflator MoM 05:30 Jul 0.10% - 0.10% -  
                   
  08/30 PCE Deflator YoY 05:30 Jul 2.30% - 2.20% -  
                   
  08/30 PCE Core MoM 05:30 Jul 0.20% - 0.10% -  
                   
  08/30 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 25 Aug 213K - 210K -  
                   
  08/30 Continuing Claims 05:30 18 Aug 1730K - 1727K -  
                   
  08/30 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 26 Aug - - 58.60 -  
                   
  08/31 U. of Mich. Sentiment 07:00 Aug F 95.50 - 95.30 -  
                   
 
 
 
 
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