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Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   100-02.5 (+05.5)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   99-11.5 (+02.5)  
 
  Support   3.111%  
 
  Resistance   2.810%  
 
 
 
 
Thursday, August 30, 2018
 
 
Treasuries are slightly higher across the curve this morning from yesterday's close. The UST 10-Year yield is currently at 2.867% after closing at 2.885% prior.

Treasuries edged higher overnight as trade jitters and geopolitical concerns resurfaced. While this week produced some positive developments between the North American countries, trade uncertainty still lingers between the U.S. and China which have kept investors cautious of risks to the global outlook. Global equities and U.S. futures moved lower overnight, while the dollar strengthened and extended gains in the early session as data showed consumer spending and inflation met expectations in July. Personal Income rose 0.30% following a 0.40% increase prior, and Personal Spending rose 0.40% as surveyed while its prior mark of a 0.40% increase remained unchanged. Real Personal Spending also came in as expected which increased 0.20% MoM.

On the inflation side, the July PCE Deflator rose 0.10% MoM as expected which accelerated the headline deflator to 2.30% YoY from 2.20% in June. The July PCE Core also came in line with expectations and rose 0.20% MoM and accelerated its YoY to 2.00% from 1.90% in June. We also received the Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended August 25 which rose 3K to 213K from an unrevised 210K prior. Continuing Claims for the week ended August 18 fell 19K to 1708K from an unchanged 1727K the week prior. Lastly, we received the Bloomberg Consumer Comfort the week ended August 26 which showed a slight drop back to 58.30 from 58.60 prior.

The curve has bull-flattened with the UST 10-Year yield down 1.8 bps from prior closing.
 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  08/27 Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index 05:30 Jul 0.45 0.13 0.43 0.48  
                   
  08/27 Dallas Fed Manf. Activity 07:30 Aug 30.00 30.90 32.30 -  
                   
  08/28 Wholesale Inventories MoM 05:30 Jul P 0.20% 0.70% 0.10% -  
                   
  08/28 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA 06:00 Jun 0.20% 0.11% 0.20% 0.21%  
                   
  08/28 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA 06:00 Jun 6.40% 6.31% 6.51% 6.54%  
                   
  08/28 Richmond Fed Manufact. Index 07:00 Aug 17.00 24.00 20.00 -  
                   
  08/29 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 24 Aug - -1.70% 4.20% -  
                   
  08/29 GDP Annualized QoQ 05:30 2Q S 4.00% 4.20% 4.10% -  
                   
  08/29 Personal Consumption 05:30 2Q S 3.90% 3.80% 4.00% -  
                   
  08/29 GDP Price Index 05:30 2Q S 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% -  
                   
  08/29 Core PCE QoQ 05:30 2Q S 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% -  
                   
  08/29 Pending Home Sales MoM 07:00 Jul 0.30% -0.70% 0.90% 1.00%  
                   
  08/29 Pending Home Sales NSA YoY 07:00 Jul -2.50% -0.50% -4.00% -  
                   
  08/30 PCE Core YoY 05:30 Jul 2.00% 2.00% 1.90% -  
                   
  08/30 Personal Income 05:30 Jul 0.40% 0.30% 0.40% -  
                   
  08/30 Personal Spending 05:30 Jul 0.40% 0.40% 0.40% -  
                   
  08/30 PCE Deflator MoM 05:30 Jul 0.10% 0.10% 0.10% -  
                   
  08/30 PCE Deflator YoY 05:30 Jul 2.30% 2.30% 2.20% -  
                   
  08/30 PCE Core MoM 05:30 Jul 0.20% 0.20% 0.10% -  
                   
  08/30 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 25 Aug 212K 213K 210K -  
                   
  08/30 Continuing Claims 05:30 18 Aug 1725K 1708K 1727K -  
                   
  08/30 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 26 Aug - 58.30 58.60 -  
                   
  08/31 U. of Mich. Sentiment 07:00 Aug F 95.50 - 95.30 -  
                   
 
 
 
 
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